The Finance Ministry expects the best scenario for the world economy, maintaining growth at a level not higher than the current. It is expected that the growth of the American economy next year is unlikely to exceed 2%. Also there are still risks associated with the decline in the growth rate of China’s economy.
LIMA, 9 Dec. The Finance Ministry believes too optimistic the IMF’s forecast for global growth in 2016 at 3.6%, reported to journalists the Deputy Minister of Finance Maxim Oreshkin.
“Too optimistic,” he said, commenting on the updated Outlook from the IMF.
“If country-specific view, we expect us economic growth next year is unlikely to exceed 2%. Because they have a period of recovery growth is over,” he explained.
In addition, according to the Deputy head of the Ministry of Finance, there are still risks associated with the decline in the growth rate of China’s economy. In his opinion, it is possible that hard on the brakes of the Chinese economy will continue next year. “As one of the scenarios — Yes, it’s possible, but it’s certainly not the baseline scenario”, — said Oreshkin.
Another negative factor, he said, is the continued adaptation to the negative external conditions in the countries with commodity exports.
“Here Russia is at the forefront from the point of view of adaptation: we live at 50 dollars per barrel. And there are countries such as Saudi Arabia, which are spending about 100 billion dollars from the reserves to maintain the old level of consumption. And adaptation does not occur absolutely. There are a number of other countries where adaptation is only partially happened. There she will continue and, of course, we will see weak growth rates in these countries,” he said.
“The best scenario (for the global economy — ed.) is to overcome problems and maintain growth at the level not higher than the current,” said Oreshkin. This year, the IMF expects a global GDP growth at 3.1%.