The MICEX index may continue to fall due to negative trends in oil prices, analysts say. The MICEX index to closing has decreased on 1,03% — to 1710,6 points, RTS — on 1,08% — to 876,42 points, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
MOSCOW, 12 Oct. The Russian stock market after a five-day rise on Monday tumbled down amid overbought local market, closing short positions, as well as the decline in oil prices in the second half of the trading day.
The MICEX index to closing has decreased on 1,03% — to 1710,6 points, RTS — on 1,08% — to 876,42 points, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 19.37 GMT were down 12 cents to 61,76 rouble, the Euro rate 6 kopecks to the ruble 70,24.
The November futures for Brent crude fell by 3% to 51,33 USD per barrel.
Paper “Bashneft” has increased (prefs — 0.75%, ordinary shares — 0.73%) on news that it until 2020 intends to pay a dividend of not less than 20 billion rubles and not less than 25% of IFRS net profit.
As stated by the President “Bashneft” Alexander Korsik, the possible increase in the tax burden on oil companies is not radically affect the volume of investments of “Bashneft” in 2016, the volume of dividends will remain at the level of at least 20 billion rubles.
Leaders and outsiders
Among leaders of growth — actions “Raspadskaya” (7,18%), “Polyus Gold” (3,55%), Moscow exchange (or 3.28%), TMK (3,27%), VTB (2,76%), and the shares of Sistema (1,29%) and “FosAgro” (1,26%).
Among leaders of decrease — actions Polyus Gold (-4,88%), shares of “RusHydro” (-4,65%), MMK (-4,56%), paper “RUSAL” (ordinary fell of 4.09%, DDR — on 3,23%), prefs of Transneft (-3,96%), the campaign “E. on Russia” (-3,45%) and ordinary shares of Tatneft (-2,87%), Sollers (-2,73%) and the shares of ALROSA (-2,62%).
Shares of Transaero airlines has continued to fall against the possible bankruptcy of the company fell by 17.1%. At the same time shares of Aeroflot rose by 2.56%.
Forecasts and recommendations
During the day, the MICEX index may fall to 1685 points, the RTS index — up to 866 points due to negative expectations on oil prices, said Mikhail Krylov from “Golden Hills — Kapital AM”.
According to Bogdan Zvarich from “Finam”, the main markets will be held in the second half of the week. A large block of important macroeconomic statistics from the USA which will be published starting from Wednesday, will revive the markets and allows the player to overestimate the chances of the fed to lift rates until the end of the year, he said.
Here is to provide statistics on retail sales, CPI, industrial production data and consumer sentiment index the University of Michigan, says the analyst. From recalls that the publication of data on stocks of oil and oil products in connection with Columbus Day moved to Thursday.
“Fly in the ointment” can become corporate reports of U.S. companies for the third quarter, believes Vladimir Bragin from the UK “Alfa Capital”. Alcoa has already reported, giving weak results, and if the General trend will also be negative, it will be possible to see a correction in the U.S. market, which then will start to decline and other fields, he says.
Continuing on the positive trend in the quotations of “black gold” that will continue demand for Russian assets, analysts say. But if the Central Bank will purchase foreign currency to replenish the reserves, the correlation between ruble and oil prices will decrease, which is another positive for the market: the price of the underlying asset will increase and the positive effect from devaluation will continue, says Bragin.