Analysts: the prices for habitation in Moscow in the third quarter fell

Analysts: the prices for habitation in Moscow in the third quarter fell

The average price of deals on Moscow’s secondary housing market in September amounted to 190 thousand rubles per square meter is 1.1% lower than in August. In the segment of elite new buildings by price meter in the third quarter of 2015 amounted to 776,7 thousand.

MOSCOW, 16 Oct. The demand for new buildings in the “old” borders of Moscow in the third quarter of this year, on average, were almost one and a half times lower than in the first quarter, is larger than the second. At the same time, housing prices in the capital in varying degrees are reduced in almost all segments, except for the elite, where the ruble prices compared with the second quarter increased by 16%, said experts interviewed.

Price dynamics

According to the company “Metrium Groups”, the prices of new mass market in Moscow in the third quarter of 2015 decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous quarter — to 153,4 thousand rubles per square meter. “If in the summer the majority of developers did not increase the cost, in September, in many projects there was a price adjustment in a big way, associated with the traditional start of the business season”, — said managing partner of “Metrium Groups” Maria Litinetskaya.

This confirms the leading expert of Department of consulting and Analytics company “ABC Housing” Ekaterina Artemova, noting that with the start of the business season real estate prices, the economy began to grow. Thus, the average level of prices in borders “old Moscow”, at the end of September 2015 $ 222,8 thousand rubles per square meter (excluding elite objects), which in turn is 1.4% above the level of August 2015.

As for the new business class, in September, the average price in the primary market business class was $ 233.5 thousand rubles, continues Litinetskaya. This is 3.5% lower than in the second quarter of this year. In addition, developers are willing to discuss individual discounts. First of all, it touched on already built residential complexes with inflated prices, said the Agency interlocutor. Thus, developers are trying to withdraw from the project, in other words, to get rid of “ballast”.

In the segment of elite new buildings by price meter in the third quarter of 2015 amounted to 776,7 thousand or 11.7 thousands of dollars, indicate in the “Metrium Groups”. The growth of ruble prices in the second quarter was 16%. Dollar rates, in contrast, showed a decline of 4%.

The average price of deals on Moscow’s secondary housing market in September amounted to 190 thousand rubles per square meter is 1.1% lower than in August, provide the data in the analytical center “Inkom-real Estate”. Negative correction for this indicator since the beginning of the year was 2.6%. The cost of a square meter of economy class is about 170 thousand rubles, comfort-class — 187 thousand rubles, business class — 272,2 thousand.

Supply and demand

The level of potential demand in borders “old Moscow”, according to the company “ABC Housing”, in September 2015 has increased by 45.7% compared to the second quarter of 2015 and decreased by 46.4% compared to the first quarter of 2015. “A large portion of potential consumers sitting on the fence and waiting for the proverbial “bottom”, points Artemova.

In “Metrium Groups” noted that the difficult economic situation and falling real incomes have meant that consumers are more likely to delay the solution of housing problems until better times or choose to buy housing with a small area, and therefore cheaper. A similar trend was observed in 2008-2009.

“Then developers, responding to the request of customers, began to provide in projects of a larger number of studios. Today the situation repeats. The main trend of the third quarter of this year was the expansion of the proposal to decrease the budget for the purchase. For example, today developers actively offer Studio with area of 22.5-38,9 square meters priced from 3,38 to 6,58 million rubles,” — says Litinetskaya.

In the secondary housing market in Moscow real demand in September increased by 10.2% versus the expected 15%, the experts said “Inkom-real Estate”. “Some of this demand can be realized on the market in October, but the other part of potential buyers has a higher “threshold of expectations” and remains in the currency, hoping for further appreciation of the dollar coupled with the decrease in ruble prices for housing. According to our estimates, if foreign exchange market soon will avoid sharp fluctuations, these people are until the end of the year will go to action, driven by the need to solve the housing problem”, — said the Director of the secondary market of “Incom Realty” Sergey Shloma.

At the same time, he said, continues to increase the number of calls for put up for sale objects, the so — called potential demand, measured by call statistics and consultations. In September this index rose by 14.6 % compared to August. Compared with the annual minimum in may 2015, it has doubled.

Mortgage deals

According to “ABC Housing “, the volume of mortgage transactions increases gradually. In the period from January to September of 2015 was 31.1% in total sales. For comparison, the figure for the same period of 2014 was 3.2 percentage points less (27.9 percent).

A significant leap in rates on mortgages in the third quarter did not happen, and thus further market growth only at the expense of the state program should not wait, says Litinetskaya. According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, for April — June 2015 were issued about 78 thousand mortgage loans under the program with state support, which amounted to over 40% of the volume issued during this period loans.

In July, according to “Metrium Groups”, the issuance under this program also remained at the same level, their share in the total issued amount does not exceed 45%, even considering the fact that the participants were actively cut rates — the minimum rate from 11.4% down to 10.9%.

“The lack of a high growth mortgage market in addition to low buying activity due to the fact that most banks have tightened the approach to dealing with mortgage customer. As of today, only every tenth application receives approval. The reasons for the refusal in most cases are the availability of negative credit history, the availability of debt (i.e. high leverage) and work in high risk (during the crisis) spheres” — indicates Litinetskaya.

With regard to the secondary market, the share of “real” money was higher, says CEO “MIEL-offices of real estate” Alexey shlenov. The ratio of personal savings and mortgage funds, participating in transactions in the summer months, on average, were in the ratio 65% to 35%.

Autumn bonuses

Despite the fact that with the beginning of the business season the increase in demand, most developers do not have to cancel promotions and discounts in your projects. In the mass segment the various bonuses are offered in 55% of the projects, in business class — 48%, in the elite class — 20%, gives the example Litinetskaya. In high-budget residential complexes are provided with individual discount. The most popular promotion is the purchase of apartments from a specific list.

“Autumn bonus has not been canceled, and now you can use the best deals from builders,” agrees with the colleague the first Deputy of the General Director of company “NDV-real Estate” Jan Kosareva. According to her, when buying an apartment in a new building, you can count on discounts of 20%.

The General Director of company “MIEL-new Buildings” Sophia Lebedeva noted the increased average size of the discounts. If in 2014 he made 3%, in 2015 reached 6-7%. In individual shares, the discount amounted to 10-12%.

For discounts you can expect buyers and secondary real estate. By data “Inkom-real Estate”, 78% of sales on the Moscow secondary housing market in September were made at a price lower than declared by the seller. The average size of the discount is 9.8%. For a number of items this figure may reach 15-20%: at this level of bargaining implemented about 10% of the objects. It happens that the apartments are sold at a price substantially below the market average (25% or more), but it’s usually a single transaction even in the segment of mass housing. While such dumping is not due to market conditions and poor consumer characteristics of the object or the facts that potentially infringe on the rights of its future owners.

Analysts of “ABC Housing” predict that in the coming months, the price level will stay at a stable level, with possible adjustments of no more than 1-3% plus or minus. Deterrent will serve as the opening on the primary market the volume of new supply, and keeping the level of discounts for the summer period of 2015. “A noticeable change, in our opinion, can manifest itself in December, when the bulk of developers will intend to close a part of their projects (that is, enter into service — ed.), and to provide attractive conditions for the purchase,” says Artyomov.