S7 flew Transaero: version and reasons

MOSCOW, October 21. /Corr. Andrey Kovalevsky/. A controlling stake in Transaero buys co-owner of S7 airlines Vladislav Filev. About it it became known on Tuesday, but experts are still scratching their heads, wondering, what is the ultimate purpose of this transaction. After all, it would seem, all is already solved: officials agreed on the bankruptcy of the carrier under the operational control of “Aeroflot”. The Federal air transport Agency completes the verification, the results of which the operator’s certificate must be revoked. “Aeroflot” as compensation for the conveyance of passengers takes international routes.

Shares are ready for takeoff

“The first version, which is hypothetically now, you can argue, is not so much the buying, but with the announcement it is gambling,” says editor of aviation portal Avia.Ru Roman Gusarov.

According to the results of today’s trading, after the deal became public, shares of Transaero airlines soared by 187% to the level of 19.5 rubles per one share. Meanwhile, at the opening of trading of the securities of the company jumped by 39.85% to the level of 9,51 rubles per share. By the way, from September 2 to October 20, the company’s share price fell almost 13 times.

“Who managed to sell the appreciated stock, and that proved to be a winner, says Gusarov. Version unlikely, but why not.”

However, the Bank of Russia has not established evidence of market manipulation in today’s transactions with shares of “Transaero” on the Moscow stock exchange, reported the press service of the regulator.

Collusion with creditors

The second version of the expert – co-owner of S7 airlines Vladislav Filev, buying a controlling stake Transaero operated directly by agreement with creditors. Many of them, in the issued credit “Transaero” tens of billions of rubles, realize that to get the money back in the event of bankruptcy will be extremely difficult.

Through the media Filev, by the way, stated that shareholders “Transaero” has a plan for the normalization of relations with creditors of the airline, however, refused to disclose details. He also noted that new shareholders by all means try to avoid the bankruptcy of the airline.

“Relatively speaking, some of the creditors asked Fileva to buy shares, to delay the bankruptcy process. For example, could do a Alfa-Bank, one of creditors “Transaero” to hold the assets until the coming of the bankruptcy Trustee under the bankruptcy of the airline”, – says the editor of the analytical portal AviaPort Oleg Panteleyev.

Roman Gusarov from Avia.ru and does believe that many creditors still hope that “Transaero” may avoid bankruptcy.

This version of experts indirectly confirmed by some of today’s statements by creditors. “Any other decision by Transaero, in addition to bankruptcy, positively. We are ready to enter into negotiations with the new owner of the company to try to resolve the problems of airlines”, – said the Chairman of the Moscow credit Bank Vladimir Chubar.

The struggle for the routes

And finally third, the most obvious and logical version of the transaction, according to experts, is connected with the desire Fileva “serious” to join the struggle for international routes “Transaero”. They, unlike domestic routes profitable. “Buying shares “Transaero” and having access to a fleet of widebody vessels of the carrier, S7 will be able to significantly improve their chances in the struggle for international routes with Aeroflot. For example, a company with such aircraft can fly in the U.S.,” says Gusarov.

This scenario would satisfy the lessors, and creditors. Aka planes “Transaero”, S7 will be paying lease payments, respectively, to repay debts “Transaero” in front of them.

“The biggest help from the state S7 airlines, should be so as not to disturb her from the point of view of administrative barriers, not to violate justice. Because it is understandable that the bonus or interest S7 – route network of “Transaero”. And so the state will be in the fact that the company was not deprived of the prize, she goes,” said Deputy economic development Minister Evgeny Elin.

But on Wednesday it became known that in Rosaviatsia the results of unscheduled inspections shall cancel the operator’s certificate “Transaero”. It officially declared first Minister of transport Maxim Sokolov, and then the head of the Federal air transport Agency Alexander Neradko.

However, revocation of operator certificate makes little difference in the plans Fileva, if they are indeed connected with an international route network of “Transaero”, experts say. Much more meaningful for him should be the news that the Interdepartmental Commission of the Ministry of transport adopted a decision on the issuance of the company group “Aeroflot” while on provisional admission on 56 international routes “Transaero”. He will act in the period from 26 October 2015 to 30 October 2016 with the possibility of further extension depending on incurred “Aeroflot” costs. In the transport Ministry, however, said that domestic routes can be redistributed among other carriers without any restrictions.

But, as said a source in aviation circles, right “Transaero” on unprofitable domestic routes of the Russian carriers are of little interest: “if you wish to put on this route the aircraft by agreement with the airport at any time”.