MOSCOW, 22 Oct. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble in the first half of trading increased on the background of attempts oil market to gain a foothold above the level of 48.5 dollars per barrel of Brent.
The approach of October of the tax period increases the demand for rubles and support the ruble exchange rate, dealers say.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 15.38 GMT decreased by 0.44 ruble — to 62,56 ruble, the Euro — 0.99 ruble — to 70,47 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
The ruble rallied slightly
Courses of the ruble against the dollar and the Euro on Wednesday was moderately increased, reflecting the rise in oil prices in the region of 48.5 dollars per barrel of Brent.
Black gold is adjusted up after updating three-week lows. Participants drew attention to evidence that oil production in the U.S. last week has not changed and remained at the level to 9.96 million barrels per day. The oil reserves in the country’s largest terminal Cushing (Cushing) fell by 0.1 million barrels to 54.1 million.
Gasoline stocks in the USA fell by 1.5 million barrels, or 0.7%, and amounted to 219,8 million barrels. Analysts had expected a decline by 0,858 million. Distillate inventories also fell by 2.6 million barrels, or 1.8%, to 145 million barrels. Analysts predicted that the index would decline at 1,272 million barrels.
A meeting of representatives of OPEC and independent oil producers was to no avail, says Ivan Antropov from the Institute of contemporary economy. “The heads of States did not come to a consensus regarding the regulation of oil prices, despite the desire of Venezuela and Iran to raise the bar to 70 dollars per barrel,” he says.
In addition to the correction of the oil market, the ruble continues to receive support from the high demand for rubles. So, MosPrime overnight rate remains above the key of the Central Bank (11%) by 0.5 percentage points.
This is due to the October tax period in Russia and high interest of investors to rouble-denominated government bonds. In anticipation of the widely expected reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank (next meeting will be held October 30) market players are eager to gain high returns on ruble-denominated debt instruments that supports the demand for rubles, experts say.
In the end, the dollar and the Euro corrected down to a few tens of cents, rebounding from one-week highs.
Forecasts and recommendations
The downward trend of the ruble could be locally overcome in the coming days, according to mark Goikhman from the company TeleTrade.
“The peak of tax payments of exporters falls on October 26. By this time the ruble may be able to return to the area of 61,6-62 rubles per dollar”, — he added.
“The IMF’s forecast that the pace of Saudi Arabia after 5 years become bankrupt, provides some support to the black gold. However, the chances of another attempt of reducing the dollar to 60 rubles vanishingly small. Most likely, the week will be completed close to the level of 62.5 rubles per dollar,” said Antropov of the Institute of current economy.
