MOSCOW, October 30. The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on the penultimate in this year’s session will consider the key rate, which currently stands at 11%. The rate decision will be published at 13:30 GMT. From the key rate (weekly REPO rate) depend on all lending rates in the economy.
According to the survey of analysts, 60% (9 of 15) experts expected to keep rates at the current level, 40% say more likely a resumption of the easing cycle monetary policy and reduced the key rate to 10.5%.
While the economic situation is quite controversial, economists said. The main factors indicate the possibility of a rate cut. Since the previous meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank rate decision (September 11), annual inflation dropped from 15.7% to 15.5%, inflation expectations are rising for several consecutive months, trend inflation (with the cleaning of one-off factors) remains high at 11.9%.
The ruble exchange rate to dollar for a month and a half has strengthened significantly: 68,5 rubles/$ to 63.5 rubles/$, but in the last days because the end of the tax period and sales of export revenues, the ruble weakens again.
According to the main analyst UK “ronin trust” Andrew verholantseva, the decision to decrease rates in such volatility of the ruble may push down the national currency. Expectations of market participants is also contradictory: the spread of OFZs to the rate reaches 100 b.p., which indicates bearish sentiment, with 3-month MosPrime rate since September has not changed.
On the one hand, strengthened the ruble and stable inflation give the regulator the chance to reduce rates at least by 0.25 PP, there remain risks of a rate hike by the fed and the seasonal weakening of the ruble at the end of the year. However, the risk of chilling the economy has somewhat weakened: according to the MAYOR, Russia’s GDP in September with the clearing of the seasonal factor grew by 0.3%.
The last in this year meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the rate to be held on December 11.