Moscow. November 12. The investment pause in the Russian economy is far from over, analysts of the Central Bank.
According to Rosstat, investment in fixed capital in Russia in September 2015 fell by 5.6% compared with September 2014 after declining by 6,8% in August, 8.5% in July, 7.1% in June and 7.6% in may. The fall of investment in September was much better than economists ‘ expectations: the consensus forecast had expected a decline of 7.9 per cent. In General, during January-September 2015 investment fell by 5.8%.
Soon after the publication of the data of Rosstat the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev suggested that the investment pause in Russia may be nearing completion.
Analysts of the Central Bank while reserved in their assessments. “We believe that the lowest point of the slowdown of investment activity currently not completed,” – said in a Bulletin issued by the Department of studies and forecasting (SSP) of the Central Bank on Thursday.
This is the first newsletter of the Department, which in September led the came from HSBC Alexander Morozov, in the future it will be published regularly. The document stressed that its conclusions and recommendations do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Central Bank.
According to the DIP, the decline of jobs in construction and in cement production continued into September. “According to our estimates, the monthly growth of investment in fixed capital (corrected for seasonality) was negative – a minus of 0,4% month-on-month, that is not talking about the beginning of the rise in investment activity”, – said in the report.
Assessment deep, the September statistics on industrial dynamics “in General can be considered as quite positive.” “The Russian economy shows signs of stabilization, which is of unstable character”, – stated in the document. “More powerful conclusions” about the prospects for recovery of manufacturing activity in the near future it will be possible to do following the publication by Rosstat statistics on industrial production for October, said the deep.
In the assessment of inflation by the end of 2015, analysts DIP with the Ministry of economic development jointly and severally, waiting for the figure to 12.7% (the Ministry of economic development predicts 12,7-12,8%, the official forecast of the Central Bank – 12-13%).