Moscow. December 7. The head of the Ministry of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev expects high volatility in the oil market will continue for another 2-3 quarters, but then prices will go up, and the results 2016 baseline forecast of the Ministry on the price of oil at $50 a barrel is quite real.
“I think the price of oil will change. Many oil analysts suggest that 2-3 would last another quarter of high volatility, and since the second half of next year with a high probability that oil prices will return to a positive trend with less volatility. Overall, I think the estimate of $50 for 2016 – and rightly so”, he said in an interview with TV channel “Russia 24”.
The Minister recalled that was calculated and the so-called pessimistic variant of the forecast, which assumes average annual oil prices at $40 per barrel in 2016 versus $50 in the baseline scenario. “In this version we do not go to positive GDP dynamics, industrial, investment and retail in 2016,” – said the Minister.
“But we don’t see (in conservative scenarios) principal risks-for example, risks to macroeconomic balance in General, risk of default of budget or undermine the banking system. The Russian economy as a whole is adapted. It passed the shock. We were able to considerably reduce costs, to improve manageability of the companies. And margin, as we understand, it’s big enough,” said the speaker, commenting on the possible risks with the conservative forecast.