MOSCOW, December 9. The decline of the economy and production in Russia suspended, next year will be a year of growth. From the Russian authorities need to create conditions for improving the business climate, improving the regulatory framework and strict control of the Antimonopoly legislation. The Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said today in an interview with Russian TV channels.
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“Our task was to stop the decline of the industry. I can say that the decline of the economy and the decline in production was suspended, he said. We believe that next year we will grow”.
According to the Ministry, in September, GDP growth, clearing of a seasonal factor was 0.2%, in October – 0.1% and about the same in November. For the full year is projected to decline to 3.7% and in 2016 – an increase of 0.7%.
According to the Prime Minister, this year triggered anti-crisis plan of the government that allowed the country to survive the most difficult period this year.
“I believe that the crisis plan worked. Separate question: do I need this plan to roll over for the future. It will depend on our assessment of where we will be next year – do we have a crisis or we are already in the period of recovery growth”, – said Medvedev.
The anti-crisis plan, which began to be implemented in late 2014, has 60 measures indicative cost 2,332 trillion rubles, the Volume of funds “anti-crisis” Fund is 206,7 billion rubles on April 24, the government adopted a decision on the redistribution 190,5 billion rubles from anticrisis Fund, including the implementation of anti-crisis plan – 141,9 billion rubles.
Plans b and C
According to Medvedev, the government had the task to stop the decline of the economy, “the descent level of life.” “The situation is really difficult, though, as you recall, last years light we were not”, – said the head of the Cabinet.
Nevertheless, the government managed to support industry and agriculture, in particular this year the growth in the agricultural sector can range from 2.5% to 3%.
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“We were able to support our industry and agriculture. We have a number of programs. On the most sensitive areas, like the automotive industry, we invested money in our auto industry, now there is a fall, not like expected”, – said the Prime Minister.
The following year, the forecasts are more optimistic: the growth of the economy in 2016 may be about 1%.
“We are able to reach the trajectory may not be sure, but still a certain growth of the economy. Relatively optimistic growth estimates of the economy – at interest. This is good in that terms that the world economy is also growing at a very fast pace,” he added.
On the other hand, Russia has a “plan” and “plan C” in case of unfavorable oil conjuncture. “Of course, we assume at the moment from a realistic scenario (of economic development). But we would be bad managers, if it had no “plan b” and even “plan C” if necessary for this situation”.
The price of a barrel of Brent 8 December fell below the critical level of 40 dollars per barrel. That kind of cheap this brand of oil was only in February 2009. Since October the price of Brent fell by 26%, and by fresh impetus to the decline in oil prices led OPEC in Vienna on 4 December.
Oil dependency
“It is bad that our economy depends on oil. But such is its structure, and we have formed: it was formed last 60 years,” he said. According to him, in 5-10 years the situation cardinally does not change.
He noted that the transition to a floating exchange rate was the right step, but now the fluctuation in oil prices primarily affect the rate of the national currency.
“It is unlikely that if will be some rebound in oil prices, these quotations will remain at the current level. Although the predictions are a thankless task,” he expressed his opinion, noting that the Russian economy has already adjusted to the constant volatility in the oil market.
The Bank of Russia from November 10, 2014 abolished the previously existing mechanism of exchange rate policy and completed the transition to the floating exchange rate regime.
The fall of the ruble began in the second half of 2014, while from June to December, the Russian currency has fallen against the dollar by 2.2 times. However, since the beginning of February of 2015, the ruble has turned to growth and by may has risen in price to dollar by 30% In may, the dollar exchange rate repeatedly dropped below 49 rubles, however then the American currency has returned to growth. From mid-may to date, the dollar rose from 49 to 69 rubles rubles.
According to Medvedev, the positive is the fact that the share of oil revenues in the Russian budget is reduced, and this trend should be fixed.
“We now have oil revenues of 44 percent in total budget revenue, but it was significantly more. We’ve had them and 50 and 60 and 70 percent. That is, the structure of budget revenues is changing, becoming more favorable. We need these trends to consolidate,” said Medvedev.
Self-isolation will not be
No isolation of Russia is not threatened, “and we don’t revel in the decisions that are taken”, said the Medvedev. However, in international Affairs should proceed from national interests and pragmatic position.
“Since Peter the window that was cut through to Europe, it is not closed, – said the head of the Cabinet. But this does not mean that we should trash to haul out of there”.
As regards Ukraine, Medvedev said that until the end of December Russia will try to agree with Ukraine on the trade regime, although it did not see these negotiations prospects.
“The chances that we will agree, in my opinion, no,’ he said. But we stubbornly, until the end of December we will try to arrange to walk this path to the end and to demonstrate that if we agree to something, we all do.”
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If the agreement doesn’t appear, Russia will impose new trade regime and sanctions against food products from Ukraine. Medvedev stressed that Russia did not do that, to help Ukraine in this situation is to cope with the economic problems and not to aggravate them.
He also spoke quite sharply on the return of Ukraine’s debt to Russia, which should occur on December 20. “Hope dies last. I have a feeling that will not return the debt, because rogues,” said he.
Also the drafts were strongly criticized, and the IMF position on this issue. “If the two governments agree, it’s obviously a sovereign loan. Never in the history of the IMF is not questioned,” said he.
“It is surprising that international financial institutions started to say, when the two governments, then it is not sovereign loan, said the Prime Minister. That’s complete bullshit, it’s a brazen, cynical lie”.
Kiev believes that to restructure this debt as commercial need. Russia, however, believes his sovereign. In mid-November, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia proposed to the over payment on the debt of Ukraine for the years 2016-2018 at $ 1 billion per year.
Turn to the East
Medvedev believes economically full “turn” of Russia to the East
“Look, the project “Power of Siberia”, is an agreement on tens of billions of dollars for the supply of our gas and oil routes on which we supply oil to China, it supplies tens of billions of dollars that we already paid. It’s already implemented projects, it is already investing. The Tianwan NPP is one we all already built, now build another,” said Medvedev, noting that this is only the largest projects.
He reminded that next week (14-17 December) is planning to visit several cities in China. “Next week will go there for a long time, I will be with Chinese colleagues to discuss investment,” said Medvedev.
As for the cooling in relations with Turkey, the resumption of the tourist flow from Russia to this country will depend on the actions of the Turkish authorities and their ability to provide security.
“It’s not sanctions in the true sense of the word. In fact, it is a defensive reaction of our state. After the destruction of our plane, in the twentieth century usually led by the state in such situation? The great Patriotic war started. Because this is a direct attack on a foreign country. Of course, in the present life, in the current situation, war is the worst that can be,” said the Russian Prime Minister.
That is why, according to him, the decision was made not to respond symmetrically to what has made Ankara.
As for the rising prices due to sanctions against Turkey, the Prime Minister praised their contribution to inflation by 0.2-0.5 percentage points. At the same time, the Prime Minister reminded that the sanctions are introduced only from January 1, 2016, and “if prices are rising, it is only as a result of price collusion”.
“Here the hands have to beat the authorities and law enforcement structures”, – said Medvedev, adding that the FAS and other responsible agencies will monitor the situation.
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Taxes – not to touch, transport – to develop
The Prime Minister said in an interview that it was necessary to promote competition in the airline industry, to develop alternative routes, including the segment of transport economy, the benefits of different routes.
As for the protests of truckers, dissatisfied with the introduction of the system “Platon”, then, according to him, the vast majority of carriers have it signed.
“700 thousand truckers have registered in the system of payments (“Plato”), it is an absolute podavlyayushego the majority of those who perform long distance transport. I must admit, of course, any new payment nobody likes. But the vast majority of carriers – solid, large – which perform, by the way, 85 to 90 percent of all transportation in the country, already in this system are in,” said Medvedev.
In General, according to him, on the road a year to spend about 1 trillion rubles, but the money you pay in most cases, the drivers of cars. “But the tech who actually acts on the road, drivers of large trucks, truck transport, pay virtually nothing. In all modern States they are involved in these expenses, it is absolutely normal, this is a good idea and I think it should be brought to its logical end”, – stressed the head of government.
In Russia from November 15 to the system, providing the toll for heavy vehicles weighing more than 12 tons of tolls on Federal highways – “Plato”. Now for every kilometre of the way truckers pay 1,53 ruble, in the future, the rate will increase. All the money will go to the Federal road Fund and will be used to repair Federal highways.
After two weeks of system operation for the repair of roads managed to collect 550 million. It is planned that in 2016 the collection of payments will bring 40 billion.
A lot of attention in the interview the Prime Minister gave the business climate in Russia. “We just have to be among the most advanced countries, and I am confident that we will achieve this,” he said. According to him, it needs to improve the regulatory framework, business procedures, electronic systems verification.
He recalled that several years ago the Russian Federation was held in the world Bank rating “Doing business” in the middle of the second hundred. “Our business climate is perceived as useless,” stated the Prime Minister. He has noticed that now Russia for a number of procedures moved forward, entering the top ten of the most advanced countries for the registration of companies.
In particular, in order not to worsen the business climate, it is not necessary to change the tax system, said the Premier. So, income tax at the rate of 13%, introduced in 2000, was 100% successful, and to introduce the progressive scale it is impractical now.
“After upgrading to 13% of the gray level areas are practically gone. All taxes are paid. I mean income tax. It is more profitable to pay than not to pay. Why do we have to cut the goose that lays such Golden eggs perfectly,” concluded the Prime Minister.
