KIEV, January 1. Ukrainian hryvnia is the second consecutive year was among the world leaders in the devaluation. However, if in 2014 the national currency of Ukraine was the weakest in the world, this year it is “ahead” of the Azerbaijan manat, Kazakhstan tenge, Zambian Kwacha Belarusian ruble and the Argentine peso. This is evidenced by the Bloomberg analysis.
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Some other Ukrainian investment instruments also were among the worst. For example, the Ukrainian stock exchange index fell by 56%, which is the worst result in the world. At the same time, the new Eurobonds of Ukraine and Ukrzaliznytsya (“Acreedores”) as a result of restructuring demonstrated high growth rates.
The Ukrainian government expects that in 2016, the Ukrainian economy will begin to recover. the national Bank and the Ministry of Finance no longer expect a significant devaluation of the hryvnia, inflation should slow down from 44% to 12%, and economic growth may be about 2%.
The hryvnia
The forecasts of the Cabinet of Ministers of the country largely at odds with the assumptions of experts of Ukrainian and international companies. The government believes that the hryvnia exchange rate this year will reach $ 24.4 UAH for 1 dollar, but some experts predict the devaluation of the national currency to UAH 30.75 per dollar.
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In the budget for 2016 is specified, all the calculations are performed taking into account that the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine will be at the level to 24.1-24.4 hryvnia/dollar. About the same forecast for the exchange rate (24 per dollar) in 2016 was made by the international monetary Fund (IMF).
Experts called the Outlook “too positive”. And the company ICU, which was previously headed by the head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Valeria Gontareva, and even unveiled one of the most negative for the Ukrainian currency forecasts – 30.75 hryvnia/dollar.
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The ex-Minister of economy of Ukraine, financial expert Victor Suslov said that this year the Ukrainians will buy the $ 30 UAH, and if cooperation with the IMF will be torn down, 40 UAH. “It is clear that the planned performance rate will not be achieved. Course at 24 hryvnias per dollar has been made. Ukraine is in default, if the program of cooperation with the IMF will be broken, the rate may reach 40 USD. Under normal conditions, the rate drops to not less than 30 UAH”, – said the economist.
Director of economic programs at the Razumkov Center Vasyl Yurchyshyn believes, is possible the dollar in 2016 – 29 UAH/USD. “Of course, it requires public assessment of the national Bank – the way he sees the forecast, and what tools will be used for this purpose. But I think that by the end of 2016, you can expect a course of 28-29 per dollar”, – said the expert.
