MOSCOW, January 15. /Corr. Tatiana Vinogradova/. The downturn in the Russian economy and the depreciation of the dollar will lead to dramatic changes in the Russian labor market: unemployment likely to peak at the end of 2016, with the largest layoffs are expected in the field of tourism and services in the automotive industry and the construction industry, experts say.
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Earlier media reported, citing an updated forecast of the Ministry of economic development, real wages in 2016 will not be reduced by 0.2% and 3.5%, incomes – by 4%, not 0.7%, and the unemployment rate will rise to 6.3%.
According to the Ministry of labor, the official unemployment in Russia for the last week of December increased by 1.3% and amounted to 960,6 thousand people. The total unemployment rate, calculated on methodology of the International labour organization, according to Rosstat, grew from September to November 2015 to 400 million people. So, if in September, the overall unemployment rate stood at 4 million people or 5.2% of the economically active population, in November this figure increased to 5.8% and the number of unemployed in Russia has grown to 4.4 million people.
On the eve of the government of the Russian Federation said that currently at risk of dismissal are 631 thousand people. As of the end of December 2015 announced past and upcoming layoffs of 60.4 thousand organizations.
Optimization of the labour market
According to recruitment Agency “unity”, the most difficult situation on the labour market in 2016 is expected in the construction industry, the banking industry and in the automotive industry. “Rush cuts are likely to have at the end of 2016 (end of November – December). Primarily, this is due to the seasonality of many industries, such as, for example, construction and agriculture”, – said the head of group of staff recruitment of personnel Agency “unity” George Samoilovich. Also, he said the reduction is projected to average and small business, and in the second half of the year in government agencies. On behalf of the head of the government Dmitry Medvedev, government agencies should optimise the staff by 10%.
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Leading specialist recruitment Agency that Ruslan Karpov also believes that unemployment will gradually increase. “The feelings, this figure will be significantly higher than forecast MAYOR – 6,3%. The company will continue to optimize costs,” said Karpov. To the list of the most vulnerable sectors which may be related to mass reduction, the expert added the catering sector the hotel and restaurant business, as well as importers that are tied to currency rates and with nothing in Russia do not produce. “Also affected are companies that sell products at a price above average, as almost all consumers are gradually moving to the mid-price segment,” said Karpov.
Head of research Superjob.ru Pavel Lebedev said that at present about 4% of the companies there are mass layoffs, another 12% of companies are small reductions to optimize the number of personnel.
“The peak of restructuring fell on the active phase of the business of the 2015 season (February-April). For example, in April of 2015, 5% of companies carried out mass layoffs of 18% is a small reduction for optimization purposes. For the same period are the peak of activity of applicants (increase in CV by 5-15% relative to the quiet time). In 2016 we will see significant changes in the labour market at the same time,” predicts Lebedev.
According to him, a particularly difficult 2016 will be for financial, insurance travel and entertainment spheres. More comfortable will feel the representatives of the sphere of information technologies (especially mobile developers), engineers and workers in the field of light industry, food industry, chemical industry and workers in agriculture.
In turn, the head of service of researches HeadHunter Maria Ignatova believes that the situation on the labour market in Russia in 2016, despite the economic instability, will be relatively calm.
“A difficult time, I hope that such a failure, as in 2015, the labour market still is not going to happen, but to say that the market will return to pre-crisis 2013-2014, it is too early. The company will be careful, most likely, they will not be making sudden moves to the end of the first quarter of 2016 and will occupy a Supervisory position. We expect fluctuations in demand for labor in the range from minus 10% to plus 5%,” – said Ignatov. She recalled that in Moscow the demand for employees in 2015 decreased by 13%, and in Russia in General increased by 1%. “We hope that by the end of the year the labour market will show the dynamics from minus 5% to plus 5%,” – said Ignatov.
The Chairman of the Federation of independent trade unions of Russia Shmakov in December 2015 at the final meeting of the tripartite Commission on settlement socially-labour relations also predicted a mass reduction in 2016. “Problems will occur in the month of February, when in January will be massive cuts in all sectors,” he said.
Dopsredstv on dommery
The Russian government plans to discuss the employment problem next week, said a source in the government.
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According to him, additional funds for labour market support in 2016 would be required. “All programs of support of employment will be implemented within existing funds. Next week will be held the first working group on the labor market, after it will be possible to say something” – said the Agency interlocutor.
To solve the problems in the labour market aims of the state program of assistance of employment of the population, which in the budget of 2016 laid 79.9 billion rubles. In comparison with year 2015 expenditure budget 2016 for its implementation by approximately 5%.
A source in the Ministry also noted that while not resolved the question of implementation in 2016, additional measures to support the labour market in the regions, which include several areas, including support, temporary employment, employment of persons with disabilities, youth and retraining. A draft resolution is ready and published on the website of legal information. According to the document, the government proposes to send to the regions of the Russian Federation of 5 billion rubles on additional measures to support employment in 2016. According to the Ministry, in 2015, these dommery implemented in 18 regions of the Russian Federation. Just for these purposes was laid to 5.2 billion roubles, but in fact at the end of the year spent 3.9 billion rubles.
Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets on the sidelines of the Gaidar forum 2016 told reporters that due to the difficult situation on the labour market of possible new measures to support employment. Golodets added that the reserve Fund of the government has funds for these purposes, therefore, concerns the situation should not cause.
Earlier Vice-the Prime Minister said that the greatest fear in the government is the employment situation in the automotive industry.
