Media: the MAYOR revised the forecast for 2016: recession instead of growth

Media: the MAYOR revised the forecast for 2016: recession instead of growth

According to the new forecast the Ministry of economic development, Russia’s GDP will shrink by 0.8% against the expected growth of 0.7% instead of the growth of industrial production is projected to decline by 0.4%. Real wages will decline by 3.5%, incomes – by 4%.

MOSCOW, 15 Jan. Government officials are discussing an updated version of the socio-economic forecast Ministry for 2016: GDP will decline by 0.8% against the expected growth by 0.7%, writes on Friday the newspaper “Vedomosti”.

According to the updated forecast, which is at the publication, the average annual exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar will amount to 68.2 percent; the price of Urals oil – $ 40, inflation of 8.5%; the outflow of capital – $ 50 billion. The parameters of this forecast may form the basis of amendments to the budget, knows Federal official. According to his press Secretary, the Prime Minister in the next two weeks planned a number of workshops and meetings with experts on the socio-economic situation and fiscal policy. The representative of the MAYOR just recalled the words of the Minister Alexei Ulyukayev: a new forecast in January.

In the budget for 2016 could be built, the price of oil in 40 dollars for barrel, said earlier the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, but warned that to do to prepare and the price of $ 30. The Deputy Minister of Finance Maxim Oreshkin estimated that with an average annual price of oil in 40 dollars for barrel prospects for economic growth of “around zero”. Now the budget is calculated from the average annual oil price of $ 50.

From the calculations the MAYOR that the Russians will continue to become poorer. Real wages will not be reduced by 0.2% and 3.5%, incomes – by 4%, not 0.7%, unemployment will increase to 6.3% (up 5.8 percent). A new forecast cancels the increase (0.6 percent) and industrial production instead, is expected to continue to decline by 0.4%.

Individual options forecast you can argue, but the fact that there will be a recession, it is obvious even with the rebound in oil prices, says Dmitry Polevoy from ING. Moreover, there remains the question whether the announced measures on optimization of the budget to keep the deficit at 3%. This year is not the most difficult, will be more difficult next year, when the state will end reserves, says a prominent businessman.