Basic forecast, which is the basis of the budget for the current year based on the forecast GDP growth of 0.7% in annual average price of oil in 40 dollars for barrel, reminded Ulyukayev. He believes that change it early.
BEIJING, 16 Dec –. The decline of the Russian economy with an average annual oil price at $ 25 in 2016 will be less than the actual reduction in 2015, which the Ministry had previously been estimated at 3,8-3,9% of GDP, says the head of the Ministry Alexei Ulyukayev.
However, the basic forecast, which is the basis of the budget for the current year and is based on the forecast GDP growth of 0.7% in annual average price of oil in 40 dollars for barrel, in the opinion of the speaker, to rule early.
“I believe that the clarification of the base case will need to come back a little later, in April, for example,” said the speaker journalists.
The “Vedomosti” newspaper on Friday published the basic parameters of the adjusted socio-economic forecast Ministry for the current year. According to the new introduction, the average price of Urals oil decreased from 50 to 40 dollars per barrel, GDP will decrease by 0.8% against the expected growth by 0.7%; average annual exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar will amount to 68.2 percent; inflation of 8.5%; the fall in real incomes will grow by 4%; the outflow of capital will amount to $ 50 billion.
“Yes, indeed, we have a scenario 40 (per barrel – ed.), we have the scenario conditions at 25 (per barrel – ed.)”, — said the speaker.
“Under the scenario of 40 dollars will be a slight decline. Less than unity”, — he said. Answering the question about the economic decline in the average price of 25 dollars, Ulyukayev said the slump would be “smaller than the actual decline last year.”
“Rosstat gave us a preliminary estimate of 3.9% (decline of the Russian economy in 2015 – ed.). I think the 3.8-to 3.9% in the end. While final figures are not,” Ulyukayev said, responding to a question about the GDP estimate for last year.
The Minister stressed that these scenarios are not new base forecast, on the basis of which it will be necessary to amend the budget.
“I believe that we should not bring this matter to the status of formal changes to the forecast, and, therefore, formal changes to the law on the budget”, — said the speaker.