MOSCOW, January 20. The dollar against the ruble on the Moscow stock exchange increased in comparison with level of closing previous trading at 1,45 rubles and amounted to 80,01 rubles, exceeding 80-ruble mark for the first time since December 16, 2014.
With record high set in December 2014 is just around the corner – at the level of 80.1 ruble.
The Euro jumped by 1.95 rubles and reached the level 87,67 ruble.
The reasons of falling of rouble
The ruble depreciates after oil, which has lost all yesterday’s growth. The cost of futures for oil of mark Brent with delivery in March 2016 on the ICE stock exchange in London has dropped by 3.2% to $27,84 per barrel. Yesterday the price of Brent rose above $30.
The ruble is falling and growth
About what will happen to the ruble, according to experts – special project
“After the return of the futures oil prices to the psychologically important level of $30 per barrel in the energy market resumed the downward movement. The reason for selling was the forecast of the International energy Agency, which involves an excessive supply in the oil market by increasing supply from Iran and countries outside OPEC,” explains the dynamics of oil prices, a leading analyst of investment group “OLMA” Anton Startsev.
The International energy Agency (IEA) published a report stating that the lifting of sanctions with Iran and return the country to the oil market strengthens fight for the demand for oil in Europe.
According to Agency estimates, the target amount of supply of Iranian oil to the Mediterranean refineries could reach 250 thousand barrels/day.
JPMorgan Chase predicts the price of Brent crude in the second quarter to $25 per barrel
This, according to experts IEA, will increase competition in the region between the oil suppliers such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. By the end of the first quarter of Iran can increase the supply of oil on the world market by 300 thousand barrels/day.
Central Bank intervention
The Bank of Russia might resume currency interventions if the ruble will continue falling against the dollar.
This opinion was expressed by analysts polled by Bloomberg.
According to a survey of 15 experts, who leads the Agency, the Central Bank may withdraw the currency market with the weakening of the Russian currency to the dollar to 90 rubles.