The scenario of 1998 in Russia will not happen again, as the country is already on a completely different level, experts say. In their view, the fall of the ruble contributes to the recovery from the recession.
MOSCOW, 21 Jan. The fall of the ruble will have no direct influence on the situation on the labour market, but on the contrary will stimulate the growth of the Russian economy, in this scenario for 1998 are not fully recur, experts say.
“The fall of the ruble will not impact directly on the situation, this is a proxy measure. On the situation on the labour market, the greatest influence will render change of the structure of domestic demand. Here’s how we will change the domestic demand as we do will change the situation on the domestic market, that this will have on employment dynamics. This is the most important indicator,” said senior researcher of the Ranepa Olga izryadnov.
According to her, the importance of the situation in the investment sector, reducing investment. “This sector of the economy will affect the dynamics of the labour market, and the second sector is retail, retail trade, volumes of which are reduced here to what extent will decrease and the number of employees, or it is offset by other sources”, — said the expert.
According to the Professor, Ranepa Vasily Yakimkin, the fall of the ruble only slightly affect the dynamics of the labour market.
“Rather the impact of General pessimism in unemployment, which is indirectly linked to the fall of the ruble, but here it should be noted that the Russians recent months, pay attention to the quotes of the ruble against the dollar and do not run in exchangers to change rubles for dollars. That is such a positive factor”, — said Yakimkin.
In addition, according to the expert, the fall of the ruble contributes to the recovery from the recession, “because those companies that export produce products, they increased profits as a consequence of momentum as a result they pay more taxes and so on,” he explained.
Script 1998
Yakimkin also compared the situation with 1998, when there was a significant collapse of the ruble on the currency market.
“As a result, many sectors of the economy have become profitable, and the Russians quickly began to till, to develop and make a profit. And then, the pace of growth we quickly recovered. But something like that can even happen now if we are created by an enabling environment, in particular, the pessimism of the business will decrease a little” — said the expert.
Earlier, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that the current situation in the Russian economy is significantly different from the 1998 crisis, and Russia is learning to live with cheaper oil reality, feeling the impact of sanctions.
According to Yakimkin, completely the scenario of 1998 will not happen again, as the country is already on a completely different level. “We have gold reserves (gold and currency reserve) was not, had nothing to support. The ratio of debt to GDP was higher than 50%. Well, now we have the level of debt declined steadily, and it is paltry compared to GDP — the level of a few percent,” said Yakimkin.
