Experts interviewed noted that unlike the situation in December 2014, the current and the August depreciation of the ruble has not led to population boom in the foreign exchange market.
MOSCOW, 21 Jan. The instability of the ruble has Russians have developed sustainable immunity to monetary shocks, the largest banks of the Russian Federation does not see high demand for dollars and euros. Interviewed experts once again recommend to stay calm and not commit exchange transactions during the panic on the currency and oil markets and the sharp fall of the ruble.
Unlike the situation in December 2014, the current and the August depreciation of the ruble has not led to population boom in the foreign exchange market. Cool Russians instilled in an unsuccessful attempt to keep your savings at the end of 2014. As repeatedly noted by representatives of the Bank of Russia, unskilled investors should not to play on currency rates, as these operations are often unprofitable.
The ruble has accelerated the fall after the New year. On Wednesday the Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said that the ruble is close to fundamental values and risks for financial stability no. At the time of application the value of the dollar was about 80.5 per ruble, after which the ruble was several times renewed historic lows. The dollar jumped Thursday by more than 5 rubles to the specified level — almost up to 86 rubles under pressure of oil prices. And the Euro overcame the next high from December 2014 to 93 rubles. Brent crude traded near while 28 per barrel.
Two of the largest Russian Bank does not mark growth of demand for dollars and euros. “At the moment, we do not observe increased demand for foreign currency from clients of the Bank”, — have informed in a press-service of Sberbank.
The representative of “VTB 24” also noted that there is no rush. “Deviations from standard levels of volume buying and selling currency is not observed. In our offices, no hype due to changes of the ruble is not,” said the retail “daughter” VTB.
As told journalists the head of VTB Andrey Kostin, a currency shock in the market and among the population no, the Bank does not observe the unusual behavior of customers.
Queues at currency exchange offices close to different metro stations in Moscow also there, told reporters. Reporters visited branches and exchange offices of Sberbank, VTB, Bank, fora-Bank and UniCredit Bank. Banks tellers reported that there is no hype associated with currency exchange not.
“In such conditions, and now, in fact, the market is again formed panic, because in two days the ruble against the dollar has lost about 9%, any foreign exchange transactions, perhaps, to do not worth it. And really what not to do, so exchanging at the current rate of rubles for dollars or euros. In the panic there is more to lose than to earn”, — says the analyst of Forex Club Irina Rogova.
“If a person opened a Deposit in the currency, while with it just to do anything is not worth it. And now it is not necessary to rush to extremes and to close the ruble deposits to join the currency or to invest in stocks. Before taking any steps, it’s better to wait for a relative stabilization of the situation”, says Rogov.
According to her, it is too early to say that the oil market has bottomed. “Black gold is still under pressure and while to say that the bottom has been reached, perhaps not. Short term, Brent may decline to $ 20 per barrel, then the dollar against the ruble may reach the level of 90-94”, — the expert believes.
To follow a similar strategy and recommends that the analyst of “Finam” Timur Nigmatullin, calling to active actions after the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on January 29, where the regulator decides on the rate.
“In my opinion, currently the conservative optimal strategy is: wait until the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the end of January and if the regulator will raise its key interest rate, to invest savings in rouble contributions, including to convert into rubles, the share of foreign currency savings. The ruble is oversold and there is a good possibility on the horizon of one year to earn on percent on rouble contributions and exchange rate differences,” believes the analyst.
According to the analyst of investment Department of “VTB 24” Alexey Mikheyev, oil prices roughly reached the bottom, but to eliminate further short-term weakening is impossible. “I think that currency to buy pointless, even, say, if from the current 84 rubles per dollar, the ruble has dropped down to 89 rubles per dollar, it will be a short term movement. To buy the currency now, it means putting that oil prices will fall further,” he said.
Davos sends different signals to the market
Ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, speaking at the world economic forum in Davos, said that he considered temporary, the current weakening of the ruble, and its course will return to their positions just as it was in December 2014.
The ruble in December last year experienced the strongest since a default of 1998 collapse of the exchange rate to the dollar and Euro to new historical lows were recorded on 16 December at the level of 80 rubles per dollar and 100 rubles per Euro. But then the Russian currency has begun to win the position. So, the dollar a few months was trading around 60-65 rubles, at the end of March fell below, and on 15 April and is for the first time since November 2014 has fallen below 50 rubles.
Thus, according to the head of VTB Andrey Kostin, the ruble in 2016 remain weak, and do not expect significant strengthening of the Russian currency, but the rebound in oil prices correction.