MOSCOW, January 29 Crisis management plan 2016, may be the low-cost program of salvation of the Russian economy over the past 20 years, the total amount of funds for the measures it envisages will amount to 750 billion rubles., moreover, most of them budgeted.
The main innovation of the plan will be the minimum attention to the banking system, which has long been a priority of all programs of support of economy of the Russian Federation, and maximum attention to small business, to which the Russian authorities have high hopes. Because entrepreneurial initiative of the Russians should become the main growth driver of the economy in the difficult years of the crisis.
“Today we present (in the government of the Russian Federation – approx. ed.), the finalized plan. Means that the anti-crisis plan now laid down, they exceed the amount of funds that are now on the block in the budget”, – said Deputy Minister of economic development of the Russian Federation Oleg Fomichev.
The anti-crisis plan will be discussed at the level of Vice-premiers, and next week given their position will again be updated.
Crisis response without the cost
The genre of anti-crisis programs is not new to the Russian policy: the first government anti-crisis program was developed in March of 1992 under the leadership of Yegor Gaidar. Shortly before the default of August 1998, the Russian government under Sergei Kirienko has created two anti-crisis plan. The following anti-crisis plans were developed during the global economic crisis of 2008-2009.
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It should be noted that every year the amount of aid the economy during the crisis decreased. So, in November 2008 on anti-crisis measures have been reserved 10 trillion. But in April 2009 the anti-crisis programme, among the priorities was the implementation of state obligations to the population, development of industrial and technological capabilities and stimulate domestic demand, was calculated to 2.5 trillion rubles Later, the plan was supplemented by measures about 1 trillion rubles.
The anti-crisis plan for 2015 includes 60 items on seven main areas of dealing with the crisis, and the total cost of these measures amounted to 2.33 trillion rubles, most of which were performed within budget.
The current plan 2016 envisages the expenditure of $ 750 billion rubles, while AZABUJYUBAN part is about 210 billion rubles. funds from the crisis reserve, said the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev.
In turn, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov believes that these measures can be direct savings from a 10 per cent budget expenditure reduction.
Banks help minimum
If the previous anti-crisis plan, which began to be implemented in late 2014, provided for the recapitalization of banks through the OFZ mechanism with funding of 1 trillion rubles., this time the banking sector can be completely excluded from the list of industries which will be supported in the framework of anti-crisis plan.
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Fomichev explained that as at the end of 2015, provided funds for recapitalization of banks has not received about 25 billion rubles. “we now Have the plan contains a clause stating that we are the remnants of last year for those banks that have neocapitalism, yet finished off,” said Deputy Minister of economic development of the Russian Federation.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation sees no need in additional support of the banking sector in the current environment.
Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseyev said that the support of the banks was rendered and the issues associated with the volatility of exchange rates largely can be addressed through the application of Supervisory standards. In particular, Moiseev noted that considerable support was provided to banks the regulator’s decision to reduce from 1 January 2016 the capital adequacy ratio (N1) c 10% to 8%.
Four priorities
Four sectors will receive anti-crisis support as a priority: the automotive industry, transport engineering, housing construction and light industry.
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Support priority sectors of the economy is estimated at 100 billion rubles.
Program to support the automotive industry in 2016, in fact, is enhanced and extended the measures for another 2015 New the program was a measure aimed at increasing the share of exports of cars – from the Russian budget it is allocated 3.6 billion rubles 3 billion rubles is allocated for updating of Park of cars of ambulance and emergency assistance.
The rest of the support remains the same: to 38.8 billion rubles in 2016, and reserved in the framework of anti-crisis measures of the RF government to support demand for cars (includes recycling program, trade-in, preferential leasing and concessional loans). Subsidies for reimbursement of expenses on investment loans will amount to 7.2 billion rubles Preserved industrial subsidies, designed to support automakers during the crisis period, however, these funds – about 80,4 billion rubles budgeted for the current year and are not related to anti-crisis measures.
The programme of support for transport engineering in 2016 includes three blocks of measures: measures to accelerate the write-off of cars with expired service life and upgrading the fleet of freight rolling stock, measures to ensure safety in the operation of rolling stock and measures to support manufacturers of innovative cars.
Many of the measures covered by the program were already operating in 2015 or entered into force at the beginning of 2016.
The Ministry offers assistance and control
In the new draft anti-crisis plan for the line construction includes two activities – the assistance program mortgage borrowers who are in a difficult financial situation, and changes in the share construction law, which tightens control over real estate developers, announced on January 28, the press service of the Ministry.
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Assistance program the food should have been updated in 2015, when its funding was provided 4,5 billion rubles of budgetary funds. However, funds were not actually sent and the program will start its work in 2016, amendments to the law on share building will toughen requirements to the developers who work within the framework of the equity, and protect the citizens of the country who have decided to buy a home under this scheme. The Ministry of construction expects that changes in Federal law 214-FZ will accept in the state Duma during the spring session.
According to the press service, the Ministry of construction proposed to the government a number of measures that can be considered as a crisis. Among them, the support of regions in terms of infrastructure in the framework of the program “Housing for Russian family”. This is a financial support for the construction of roads, social objects and external communications in an integrated housing development. As anti-crisis measure, according to the Ministry of construction, you can work the law of development of industrial areas so that these areas could also be used for residential development.
A range of measures the Ministry is currently developing to support housing demand. The subsidising of mortgage loans in a particular format. What mechanisms will be selected, will be known in late February or early March, closer to the end date of the program to subsidize mortgage rates for the purchase of a primary residence.
Small business and the public
The anti-crisis plan in 2016 will contain a large block of measures to support small and medium businesses, announced on the eve of the first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.
Generally, this is in support of small business is aimed at recent efforts by the Russian authorities, for this purpose was created a new goskorporatsiya, which should become the single centre for SMEs. Moreover, the government is preparing a strategy for the development of small and medium businesses up to 2030, according to which the share of such enterprises in Russia is expected to double.
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Measures of small business support related to the activities of the Federal Corporation for development of SMEs, creation of market niches for business, technological development, affordable financing, the predictability of the fiscal burden of government regulation, its territorial development and personnel.
As for the social part of the anti-crisis plan, then, judging by the conflicting information from the authorities in recent days, this block was the most controversial.
So, this week, media reported that the document provides for the restriction of payment of pensions to pensioners with income over 1 million roubles a year and the possibility of increasing the retirement age.
However, later Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets reported that the restriction on the payment of pensions to pensioners with earnings above 1 million rubles a year, is not included in the anti-crisis plan. Fomichev, in his turn said that raising the retirement age also is not incorporated in the draft updated anti-crisis plan.
Thus according to him, all proposals of the Ministry of health until taken into account in the draft plan. And the money from frozen pension savings will go to the needs of the pension system.
In turn Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov mentioned the decision to allocate 200 billion rubles for balancing the Pension Fund.
