The new forecast of Ministry of economic development (MED) for 2016-2018 and 2019, which read “Vedomosti”, envisages a gradual increase of oil prices to $40/bbl. this year to $50/bbl. in 2018 and 2019. From recession, the economy will be released in 2017 when the cost of oil $45/bbl. and at the same time stop the decline of major economic indicators: wages, incomes, investment, industry, believe in the MAYOR.
According to the new forecast, the budget deficit will annually decrease by 1 p. p. year will be deficit-free with oil prices at $50/bbl. by 2019.
Incomes, suggest to the MAYOR, in 2015-2016 will decrease by more than 8%, in 2017 will go to growth, but by 2020 still remain below the 2014 level.
By the beginning of 2020, according to a new forecast, the MAYOR, the inflation rate will slow to 5%. The Agency disagrees with the estimates of the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank, according to which in 2017 will reach the level of inflation at 4%.
In the baseline forecast of the economy for the 2015-2018 decrease of 0.5%, but in 2019, despite the stagnation of oil prices, growth will accelerate to 2.5%. The scale of the recession in 2016, I believe in the MAYOR, will be reduced to 0.3%.
Earlier in March the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev, speaking at the Russian business Week on Thursday, stated that the dynamics of the Russian economy at the present time can be assessed as a condition of “approximately zero”. According to the Minister, the markets “gradually found a balance.” “If you go back to commodities, it seems to us that this year the balance point will be about $40 per barrel,” — said Ulyukayev. He also clarified that oil at $40 will be taken into account during the adjustment of the macroeconomic forecast and adjust budget targets.