In the Ministry of economic development, it is assumed that projected office corridor of the world prices for oil for the next five at $40-60 per barrel is the new normal. This was stated to journalists on Friday the Deputy Minister Alexei Vedev, reports “RIA Novosti”.
“We proceed from the fact that the corridor of 40-60 per barrel — this is a new reality, a new normality for the next five years,” said Vedev. He said that on the basis of this forecast GDP growth in 2016, zero.
“Plus or minus 0% we are considering for this year, yesterday voiced figure minus 0.2%, but is within the stated uncertainty,” said Vedev.
According to the forecast of Ministry of economic development, economic growth Russia will go in the second half of 2016, “if there are no further shocks,” said Vedev. He said that in this case, the authority has a conservative scenario, which assumes an oil price of $25 per barrel. In this case, said zamglavy the Ministry of economic development, the beginning of economic growth will be postponed for six months.
Yesterday the Russian government approved the macroeconomic forecast for 2016 and for scenario conditions in 2017-2019 years, which assumes an average oil price in the next four years at $40 per barrel.
Last week the Minister of economic development was announced to journalists by the parameters of the baseline forecast that assumed the price of a barrel of oil to $40 in 2016, $45 in 2017 and $50 in 2018 and 2019. Later, however, a Federal official told us that this forecast was sent back for revision prior to consideration at the government meeting.
The average annual price of oil at $40 until the end of 2019 was laid down in the base and target projections for this period. According to the new calculations, in the base case forecast reduction of GDP in 2016 it will be 0.2%, but in 2017 is expected to increase 0.8% to 2019 — growth to 2.2%.
For comparison, the October forecast of socio-economic development in the years 2016-2018 assumed oil price in 2016 $50 per barrel and $52-55 in the next two years.