The median forecast of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, showed that by mid-year, the ruble may go down by 8% to 70 rubles per $1.
“We’re not really sure what the rally of the oil market will be stable in the short term, and the strengthening of the ruble is largely due to an upturn in oil prices”, — said the chief investment officer for emerging markets at UBS Group AG Jorge Mariscal.
Mariscal said that the Bank has ceased to bet on the strengthening of the ruble two weeks ago. UBS predicts that in three months the dollar will amount to 73 rubles/$1. “The correction in oil prices will happen with a delay, and as soon as it starts, we will see the depreciation of the ruble in the second half of may,” — said the Director of the Department of active operations “Veles the Capital” Evgenie Shilenkov.
According to Bloomberg, all of the currencies of developing currencies except the peso, traders are the most pessimistic mood exactly to the ruble. Historical dynamics, in turn, suggests that over the last 12 years the Russian currency became cheaper nine times in may, reminds Agency.
From the beginning, the ruble has appreciated by 14% — this is the best result among currencies of emerging markets after the Zambian Kwacha and the second result among all the world’s currencies. In this case, after hedge funds and other large speculators, according to the Commission on commodity futures trading, 47% reduced their net bets on the strengthening of the ruble from the highs in March.
“The ruble has three potential threats in may: oil, reversal of capital flows and risks, “the Central Bank will resume buying foreign currencies for reserves”, — said Alexander Losev, CEO of Sputnik Asset Management. According to him, investors will seek to “reduce the risks”.
On Friday, 4 may, the exchange rate of the dollar at the opening first in may 2016 trading on the Moscow stock exchange soared more than 2 RUB This occurred against the background of falling value of Brent by $3 during the may holidays.
Previously experts surveyed by Bloomberg opined that the situation in the oil market reminds of what was happening last year. Then in may quotes again began to decline after a slight rebound. The representatives of Commerzbank, BNP Paribas and UBS Group have suggested that the rise in oil prices by 70% in comparison with January lows may be due for a correction in the coming weeks. So, Commerzbank noted that “the market is already overheated and a correction is overdue”.
