Russian gas exports in 2016 to fall by nearly 5%

Export of network gas from Russia to the far abroad countries in 2016 will decrease by 4.7% compared to the previous year, to 138 billion cubic meters, according to the forecast of socio-economic development for 2016-2019, as approved by the government in late April and published on the website of the Ministry of economic development on Friday, 6 may.

“Taking into account the intentions of the EU countries to reduce dependence on imports of Russian gas replacing other fuels, including coal and renewable sources of energy, there are risks of slowing growth in the export of network gas in the far abroad”, — explained in the document. After a decline, according to the forecasts of the MAYOR, the export stabiliziruemost at the level of 139 billion cubic meters.

The document also notes that “in the current relations with Ukraine,” Russian gas deliveries to the country in 2016 are estimated to 11 billion cubic meters.

The production volume in 2016, according to estimates by the MAYOR, will be 641 billion cubic meters, and by 2019 the gas production will be able to increase to 676 billion cubic metres.

The export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asia-Pacific region at the same time in 2016 will remain at the level of 10 million tons and next year, “taking into account the planned year-end enter the South-Tambeyskoye field and the first phase of the project “Yamal LNG” with a capacity of 5.5 million tons per year”, LNG exports will increase to 11.2 million tons, and by 2019 will increase to 16.0 million tonnes.

Oil exports, according to the forecast the MAYOR, will decrease from 244.5 million tons in 2015 to 243 million tons in 2016, in 2018 the volume of oil exports will increase and by 2019 will exceed the level of 2015.

In the presentation of Gazprom, presented on investor day in new York on February 1 said that the company has budgeted 2016 the average price of gas supplies to far abroad at $199 per 1 thousand cubic meters after $243 for the year 2015. Separately specified stress scenario with the price of gas exports in 2016 to $169.

In mid-April, the Chairman of the Board “Gazprom” Alexey Miller has informed journalists that from 1 January to 16 April, Gazprom increased gas export to far abroad by 22.6%. While gas supplies to Germany rose by 21.3%, in Italy — 16%, Poland — by 35.7%, in the Netherlands by 115%. According to “Gazprom export”, in 2015 in European countries and Turkey were delivered 158,56 billion cubic meters of gas.

The Deputy Chairman of the management Board of the company Alexander Medvedev said on March 1 that “Gazprom” for the first time in ten years increased its share on the European gas market from 30% to 31%. In 2015, Gazprom provided 31% of supply in the European gas market after 30% in 2014. “We not only kept its share, but also increased it. 31% — the highest level over the past decade,” Medvedev said at a meeting with investors in new York.

Later, on April 28, “Interfax” with reference to data of European transit operators reported that in April the export of “Gazprom” in the CIS countries fell for the first time in a year. Only in April, Gazprom supplied Western Europe and Turkey the minimum volume of gas to 13 billion cubic meters of gas.

May 4, Miller said to journalists that, according to operative data, in the first four months of 2016, gas export “Gazprom” in the CIS countries increased in comparison with January-April 2015 by 19.8%.