The Deputy Chairman of Sberbank Alexander Morozov during a conference call voiced macroeconomic forecasts of the Bank until the end of 2016. The price of oil this year will be $40 per barrel. Earlier, in January, the Bank had forecast $35 per barrel. The fall in GDP will amount to 0.7% instead of 2.2%. The dollar, according to Sberbank, will cost 68 rubles, in January the Bank was forecast to 77.4 rubles per dollar. Morozov does not exclude a situation in which the dollar will be worth below 65 rubles to the end of the year. Inflation will be 6.8 percent, instead of 8.5%.
Also the Bank has improved the forecast on growth of the loan portfolio of banks in the whole system: a corporate portfolio will rise less than 10%, the retail portfolio by 15%. In January the savings Bank had forecast growth of loans to companies at the level of 6-8%, loans to citizens — at the level of 3-5%.
Sberbank forecasts optimistic forecasts of the Central Bank, which expects the oil price this year will stay at $30 per barrel, the GDP decline will amount to about 1.3-1.5%.
