Sberbank CIB allowed the weakening of the ruble before the dividend payment

“In the period between now and the beginning of August, more than 45 companies have to pay a final dividend for the year 2015. According to our estimates, pending payments will exceed a total of 820 billion rubles, equivalent to $12.7 billion,” writes in his review of Sberbank CIB analyst Iskander Lutsky.

He expects shareholders will convert to the currency of nearly $4 billion, or 30% of the total ruble dividends for 2015. By law, companies registered in Russia, should pay dividends in rubles, but foreign shareholders, including holders of Depositary receipts, traditionally convert the received funds into foreign currency.

“The greatest risks for the ruble in June, as many foreign shareholders are hedged and want to take advantage of an attractive rate and buy a currency in anticipation of a major dividend payout,” adds luck.

The analyst notes that this estimate does not take into account dividend payments of non-public companies, which can amount to quite a substantial amount. He believes that the demand for currency, taking into account all payments to shareholders could reach $13 billion It can have a negative impact on the ruble.

As suggested by Lubart, while maintaining the current oil prices and the absence of other factors (the fed’s decision about raising rates, of a British exit from the EU, tougher sanctions, etc.), the dollar in June could rise to 67 RUB “Additional pressure on the ruble can have of external debt, which in June will be $6.2 billion according to the Central Bank on actual payment”, — he said.

In July the opposite situation: support the ruble can have a sale of foreign currency from exporters for the payment of dividends themselves, the ruble may return to the actual values. To make ruble payments, many exporters have to borrow in rubles. For the same period accounts for tax payments, which will also increase the demand for rubles and support the currency. In June—August 2016, the company must pay 3.6 trillion rubles “According to our estimates, exporters are unable to sell up to $15 billion for future payments for dividends and taxes,” says Lutsky.

“PIK dividend payment will be in July—August, but now, in the face of rising oil prices, the impact of this factor on the ruble will be insignificant”, — says chief economist at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova. According to her, the ruble is now in “equilibrium”, so from the currency exchange rates do not expect in the short term, no dramatic changes.

The receipt of dividends state-owned companies in Russia’s budget in 2016 will be well below the 400 billion rubles, reported on 26 may, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. “This year, the decision of the government stating that the dividends are paid is based highest result, is calculated according to international accounting standards or according to Russian standards, at the rate of 50% of the profits. For a number of companies have taken individual decisions”, — quotes the Minister Agency “Prime”. “Accordingly, this amount is the planned amount of dividends (‘in 2016. —) will be reduced. We had planned to more than 400 billion rubles of dividends, now this amount will be correspondingly lower this value,” — said the Minister.

According to the chief economist for Russia and CIS “Renaissance Capital” Oleg Kuzmin, the influx or withdrawal of the country amounts to about $5 billion could change the dollar on the 1 RUB.

“In 2015, the ruble was not supported by taxes and dividends due to the fall in oil prices and the strengthening of the dollar,” — said Lutsky. In June—August 2015 the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange rose nearly 13 RUB, showing a peak in mid-August at the level of 69,1 RUB.

The most significant payouts with subsequent conversion of the dividends into the currency expected in such companies as Gazprom, MTS, LUKOIL, Sberbank, Norilsk Nickel and Rosneft. Only one “Gazprom” will pay its shareholders in early August of 181 billion rubles, “Rosneft” in the middle of July will have to pay dividends to 124 billion rubles. thus, according to Lutsky, the greatest impact on the currency market will provide “Gazprom”, which reduced available funds as a result of lower energy prices and the high cost of capex.

Last year, according to calculations Sberbank CIB, the recipients of the dividends are converted into the currency of $4.5 billion.