The change of elites: what lies behind the mass shifts in the power

The change of elites: what lies behind the mass shifts in the power

All the permutations that occurred on Thursday, was planned as a minimum throughout the year, and in the end it was decided to spend them in one day, told the interlocutors close to the Kremlin, the government and the leadership of “United Russia”. Trigger reshuffle was the need to replace the head of the Federal customs service (FCS) — his resignation was also planned, but after searches at his house, it was decided to expedite the process, explain the sources.

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a series of large-scale personnel changes for the presidential elections 2018, explain the resignation and the appointment of interlocutors . Their goal is to eliminate conflicts in certain areas and withdraw to the level of middle management, the new people whom the President considers promising for the future electoral cycle. According to one of interlocutors , the next stage of the reshuffle may affect already not middle managers, and senior management.

Test for security forces

The reshuffle in the North-West connected with desire of the President to transfer to the post of head FTS its envoy Vladimir Bulavin, explain the interlocutors . “Bulavin transition — the absolute increase. This is a man with great potential, which we are testing in this position,” says one source. Bulavin (born in 1953), as Putin comes from KGB-FSB. When close to the President, the head of Department Nikolay Patrushev has passed in the security Council, Bulavin became his first Deputy.

In the Yaroslavl region acting Governor instead sent in the resignation of Sergei Yastrebov) became Lieutenant-General of police Dmitry Mironov, up to now Deputy Minister of internal Affairs. More than 20 years served in the KGB and the Federal security service, Mironov engaged in the settlement of the conflict between the interior Ministry and the FSB, which led to the criminal case against the leaders of the Main Directorate for economic security and combating corruption of the interior Ministry of Denis Sugrobov and Kolesnikov.

In the Kaliningrad region appointed head of the Kaliningrad FSB Evgeny Senichev, who held this position from June 2015. Official biography Senicheva not published. As follows from the data of Rosreestr, the full namesake of the new acting Governor Yevgeny Senicheva there is a plot in the village Yascherovo on the shores of lake Valdai. In the same area, near the residence of the President, settled a close to Vladimir Putin.

Sinchew — promising officer of the FSB, which a year ago was transferred specifically to direct the local Department of the FSB, to prepare for the Governor’s office, according to a source close to the Kremlin. In addition, the appointment Senicheva is intended to solve the difficult political situation in Kaliningrad, where recently there was a struggle between different elite groups, says one of the interlocutors.

When assigning Senicheva obviously played a role, the tension of the Kremlin in connection with the geographical situation of Kaliningrad, relations of Russia with NATO and the Baltic States, said political analyst Yevgeny Minchenko. Decided to put security forces in the strategically important region, ” the expert explained.

To lead the Kirov oblast is the head of Rosreestr Igor Vasiliev. Vasiliev himself had previously served in the KGB and in an interview in 2004 admitted that worked in the same office with Putin.

In the autumn elections the security forces will not take part — they will lead the regions before the elections of 2017. Early elections are appointed at least 60 days. It is the search for a successor and unwillingness to immediately forward it to the polls explained earlier, the interlocutors close to the leadership of United Russia, the delay in suspension of the arrested Kirov Governor Nikita Belykh.

“Bulavin, Senichev, Mironov, and also the new Governor of Sevastopol Dmitry Ovsyannikov is a new generation of mid-level managers, which tests for the President,” says a source close to the Kremlin.

The passage in the career of a post of the Governor becomes an important qualification requirement and advantage in the future career of officials and managers, says the head close to the Kremlin Fund ISAPI Dmitry Badovsky. He recalls that earlier heads of regions Oleksiy Dyumin (former Deputy head of the security Service of the President) and Igor Rudenya (former head of the government Department of the times of Putin’s Premiership).

Crimea removed from the conflict

In the Crimea chain rearrangements caused by the conflict in Sevastopol, which the Kremlin has long wanted to pay, said the source close to the presidential administration. In addition, according to them, the country’s leadership have been planning to liquidate the Crimean Federal district, who want to enter into the system the whole of southern Russia.

For almost two years did not abate the conflict between the Governor of Sevastopol Sergei Menyailo and ex-speaker of the legislative Assembly of the city Alexey Chaly. In April 2014, became popular in Sevastopol, the hero of “Russian spring” Chaly refused the post of head of the city and recommended this candidate meniailo. But after six months, Chaly said that I was wrong in recommending Menyailo, and began to seek his resignation on the post of speaker.

In December last year, Chaly said that the legislative and Executive authorities of the city do not fulfill campaign promises, and in protest resigned. He called to do the same Governor, but the call did not respond. After that, the Chaly supporters in the legislature tried twice to push through the city Parliament the amendment to the Charter of Sevastopol on the transition to direct elections of the Governor, but supporters, after it was blocked.

In parallel, supporters Chaly tried to bring the issue of transition to direct elections to a referendum, but the local electoral Commission, and then the CEC did not accept their bid, citing the lack of a regional law on the referendum.

In the June ranking Pro-Kremlin development Fund civil society position Menyailo has deteriorated, he slipped to five lines and shifted to the so-called lower group of regional leaders, finishing in the rating of 57-59 places. The weakening of the position of the Governor of the authors explained the difficulties in the housing sector in the region, problems with the roads, as well as negative information background after the resignation Chaly.

Menyailo enjoyed the support of presidential envoy to the Crimean Federal district Oleg Belavencev, Makarkin reminds. The conflict between the leaders of the region, the Kremlin has decided to radically, says the scientist of the region was removed as Menyailo and Belavencev, and the Crimean Embassy was liquidated.

As head of the Federation, responsible for economic policy in the region, Menyailo their goals, said the Senator from Sevastopol Olga Timofeeva. “Not solved the main tasks for the formation of the structure and functions of government, not to mention the prospects of development of the city,” she explained. Problems with housing, education, health care, the continued and indiscriminate building — all this have to solve the new Governor, the Senator added.

But to leave without a job Menyailo, which is considered to be honored by man as a member of the annexation of Crimea to Russia was not possible, and celebrate close to the Kremlin interlocutors . He was transferred to a position which in any case would have been released, the presidential envoy to the Siberian Federal district. The envoy Nikolai Rogozhkin could not manifest itself in this place, moreover, next summer he had to reach the age limit for civil servants is 65 years and in any case would leave the place. “But since Menyailo had jobs, had to fire Rogozhkin before. Without it, he could consider some time,” says a source close to the Kremlin.

There have permutations and hardware side, recognize the interlocutors . The planned liquidation of the Crimean Federal district lobbied including opponents defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Set aside envoy Oleg Belaventsev collaborated with the Minister in the period when he headed the Ministry of emergency situations (Belavenets in charge of one of FGU MES), and in the Moscow region Governor Sergei Shoigu, he managed his Affairs). Now the Crimea comes from the sphere of influence of the Minister of defence, he transferred to the North Caucasus, which was sent Ambassador Belavenets. “Shoigu satisfied with this decision. The North Caucasus is more important for the Minister of defense”, — supposes the interlocutor, Recalling that long-range bombers recently flew to Syria from located within the County of Mozdok.

The Embassy lose their meaning

In addition to the meniailo on the place of envoy rather from the need to attach got Nikolai Tsukanov, according to sources close to the Kremlin. According to sources , many representatives of Federal elite skeptical. However, it does have a support group at the Federal level, one source, Recalling that Tsukanova were appointed to the post of Governor of former President Dmitry Medvedev.

Decision on appointment of presidential envoys Tsukanov and Menyailo, which is not proved in past posts, may be a signal about the future of the Institute of the Embassy, said political consultant Leonid Davydov. “In General, permutations lead management system more in line with the realities, and the appointment of envoys of this logic is struggling. This suggests that the institution of presidential envoys, it may be further reformed. In favor of this version — the unification of South and the Crimean Embassy. It cannot be excluded that this is only the first step,” says the source .

The meaning of the envoys is getting smaller, says Minchenko. All tasks for which they were created — to ensure the loyalty of the governors, bringing regional legislation into conformity with the Federal — they performed, and the management of power structures in which they are partially engaged, more verticalities and closed on Moscow, ” he explains. Political management at the level of regional elections is supervised by the presidential administration, not the envoys.

According to Minchenko, is now the Embassy has two functions: on the one hand, it is a place of honor for a senior person, which frees a high post, on the other — a career springboard for a possible move up the career ladder. “The main personnel turbulence ahead: until the end of the year it is planned to continue changes in the power structures, which is still far from over, and after the Duma elections are still the inevitable reorganization of the government and shifts in the Governor’s case”, — the expert predicts.