“The new Crimean crisis grew out of nowhere,” — emphasizes the columnist for the Guardian Luke Harding. If in Donetsk and Lugansk, he continues, still daily skirmishes, on the Perekop isthmus (connecting Crimea with the mainland) it was quiet even in the spring of 2014. “All this leads to the suspicion, voiced by Carl Bildt, what can Russia do to prepare for a new invasion,” writes Harding. Former Minister of foreign Affairs of Sweden and the Swedish government, and now an expert on international Affairs, Carl Bildt, on the eve wrote in his Twitter: “And now, Russia says it will not participate in the meeting in the format of the Minsk agreements. This is definitely political propaganda, military training for something”.
Previous military offensive Russia fell on the Olympics, writes Harding, when the international community’s attention is diverted: the conflict in Georgia coincided with the Beijing 2008 Olympics, the Ukrainian crisis with the Games in Sochi. “This summer I had a few lucky coincidences, — writes columnist. — US busy race, where one candidate hinted at the possibility of recognition of Russian Crimea. Europe is in turmoil because of the consequences of voting for Brexit and the migration crisis.”
In the end, Harding describes three possible scenarios of development of events: either the Kremlin will take advantage of the aggravation to put pressure on the EU for the lifting of sanctions, or Russia will conduct a limited offensive to create a “security corridor” or organize “something more.” A land corridor through Mariupol will solve most infrastructure problems of the Crimea, will show the weak-willed West and even become a kind of revenge for doping scandal, says Harding.
Bloomberg talked to an expert of the Japanese financial holding company Nomura Holdings Tim Ash, who also noted that to understand the Kremlin’s strategy now is very difficult. This may be one of many artificial escalations, to show Kiev and the West that the problems in the East of Ukraine is not solved and Russia is still there as a key player, said the expert. The crisis could have a purpose and strengthen unity in Russia before the parliamentary elections, and irritation of Kiev on the eve of the 25 th anniversary of independence of Ukraine, and the preparations for the elections in the US, suggests ash.
American war correspondent for The Daily Beast Michael Weiss draws attention to the fact that in early August, many observers in Ukraine among foreign correspondents and local activists noted the serious military preparations on the territory of Crimea. And yet, if we are talking about the preparation of the invasion, the Russian army is unlikely to carry it out through the isthmus of Perekop, the newspaper notes.
Another option is the transfer of troops across the Bay Sivash is theoretically possible, but also unlikely, says the correspondent. In addition, some elite teams, took part in the annexation of Crimea, now deployed in Syria, says the journalist. Ultimately, says Weiss, a new crisis in the Crimea is only part of the psychological warfare against Kiev, in the best case, to force him to make a fatal mistake (for example, disproportionately to react).
We took a tough stance political correspondent for the German Die Welt Richard Hertsinger. The incident at Armyansk he called “an obvious provocation of the Russian special services”, which aims to fabricate a reason for the threat of military aggression or even invasion. “Now the West needs to stop the self-deception that serious persuasion to return the Kremlin to the path of reason and peace, warns of Hertsinger. — It’s time to signal that the resumption of the aggression against Ukraine is even less valid than the continuing occupation of its territory”.
