With the price of oil at $49 per barrel the fair value of the national currency is 65,20 rubles per dollar (at 19:00 exchange rate left 63,8 rubles per dollar), says the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai. Now support the ruble carry trade operations and banks, using the output of foreign assets to replace the outflow of funds from accounts of companies. Raiffeisenbank expect a further weakening of the ruble in stable oil in late August — early September.
In the period from late may to early August, more than 45 companies had to pay dividends in 2015. At the end of may, Sberbank CIB estimated these payments in total 820 billion rubles, equivalent to $12.7 billion
In July, the outflow of funds of legal entities with Bank accounts due to dividend payments totaled $10.7 billion against $3.4 billion in June. As a result, the balance of the deposits of legal entities dropped to its three-year low ($128,2 billion), indicated in the overview of Raiffeisenbank. Raiffeisenbank noted that the company used for payments not credit, and Deposit.
Eventually, the outflow was covered by banks through the use of balance on Deposit and correspondent accounts with non-resident banks ($6.1 billion), the sale of Eurobonds ($1.9 billion) and the release of funds from lending ($1.3 billion). “As a result of capital inflows from banks offset the lower current account surpluses, and the ruble is now not an equilibrium,” — noted in the review.
Now the Central Bank often talks about the expected surplus liquidity in the banking sector, however, we must understand that he means not the presence of a large amount of available funds, but only the excess balances on correspondent accounts with the Central Bank on loans to banks, the Central Bank, says the analyst of PSB Dmitry Monastyrshin. Therefore, banks had to turn to foreign assets, he says. According to the analyst, to expect reductions of foreign currency liquid assets are now not worth it because most of the payments made, and more replacement banks deposits are not required.
However, the chief economist of the Eurasian development Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik says that from the point of view of the state of the current account, the rouble is now close to the equilibrium value. “The current account surplus is shrinking due to a decline in exports. Import in the last few months reduced not so quickly, and this hinders the further strengthening of the ruble,” he says.
