“The death of democracy”
“The allegations against me are only a pretext for the unconstitutional coup. Two years ago, I chose the 54 million citizens, so the impeachment is a challenge to the solemn will of the people, — said on Monday the Brazilian Senate, former President of the country Dilma Rousseff. I fear the death of democracy”.
With Rousseff speech in the Senate began the final stage of impeachment. Rousseff was suspended from office on may 12. According to parliamentary procedure, the final decision on the resignation will be made within 48 hours after her performance. In case of removal she will lose the right to hold public office for eight years after the formal end of his current term — that is, until January 1, 2027. Rousseff will be 79 years old.
To complete the months-long impeachment is necessary that the suspension Rousseff was supported by a qualified majority of two thirds of the members of the Senate. Only in the upper house of the Brazilian Parliament meets 81 senators, only 11 belong to supporting Rousseff of the workers ‘ Party. In may for the temporary removal of the President voted, 68% of senators, or 55 people — one more than required for a decision. According to the plan, after debate of the parties and the speeches of the senators themselves fateful vote to be held on Tuesday evening or on the night of Wednesday, August 31.
Rousseff is accused of violating several articles of the Brazilian Constitution and Tax code. She is suspected of complicity in the crimes of corruption in the state oil company Petrobras. In 2014, investigators uncovered a system of bribes and kickbacks worth at least $3.8 billion Obtained by the top management of Petrobras funds were spent on buying influence among politicians and parliamentarians.
Opponents of Rousseff saying that she at least knew about the corruption schemes, as in 2003-2010 Chairman of the Board of Directors of Petrobras. She was also a member of the leadership mired in the scandal of the workers ‘ Party.
The government Rousseff also accused of fiscal fraud, the so-called “fiscal pedaling”. Planned spending the government regularly postponed for the next financial period to improve performance in the current period, but in the end it led only to the growth of domestic debt.
Rousseff in fact did nothing beyond what was done by its predecessors, says Professor of MGIMO Boris Martynov. According to him, “corruption is embedded in the political system of Brazil”.
Repetition
The last time Brazil was in a similar situation in the early 1990-ies. The first time a democratically elected President, Fernando color de Mello was accused of corruption and abuse of power. In October 1992, he was suspended from office, and in December — the day before the final vote in the Senate — he resigned.
The senators still held a vote, which formally removed the Kolor di Mello, and forbade him to engage in politics for eight years. Succeeded him as Vice-President Itamar Franco thought a year later on holding new elections, but the Parliament rejected his proposal and Frank finished the term of Color to the end. Now Kolor di Mel sits in the Senate and it is the sole representative of his Christian labor party. To vote on 12 may he supported the impeachment process over Dilma Rousseff.
Wobbly chair
If the suspension will be confirmed Rousseff, the President automatically becomes Vice-President Michel Temer, who since may has been the acting President. Approval this post will not require re-election, and Temer will be able to Refine the period Rousseff, expiring by the beginning of 2019. 52% of Brazilians favour the re-election whatever the outcome of the impeachment process, showed the July survey Ipsos. The Brazilian presidential elections are held simultaneously with parliamentary and MPs hardly want to lose mandates in the midst of a political crisis, doubts about the prospects of early election of Martynov from the Moscow state Institute.
The position of the Temer can not be called strong: he himself could face the impeachment process. In December 2015 advocate Mariel Marra has submitted to the Chamber of deputies on the complaint of Temer, alleging that in the tax fraud and abuse of authority.
For the start of the investigation against Temer will require the convening of an inter-party parliamentary Commission, but the representatives of the largest faction, the centre — right Party of Brazilian democratic movement, members of which are Temer, and Cunha — are boycotting the convocation of the Commission. In late July, the new speaker of the lower house Rodrigo Maya recognized that this process of impeachment Temer was actually frozen.
Support Temer Brazilians slightly higher than Rousseff, against which in recent years was going multimillion protests. In April pollsters Datafolha conducted a nationwide survey, which shows that for the impeachment of Rousseff are 61% of citizens, and for the impeachment of Temer — 58%. The popularity of Temer is so low that the opening of the Olympics in Rio in early August, acting President booed, and the closing ceremony two weeks later he has not come, says British Financial Times.
If Temer will be established in the office of the President as a center-right politician, he will be under pressure from the business community, which insists on beginning the long-awaited economic reform after 13 years of rule by the socialists, the FT notes. Because of this in the foreseeable future we can expect the growth of investment attractiveness of Brazil, the newspaper notes. In his message to the Senate itself Rousseff not only accused of Temer in the organization “coup”, but assured that his government will cut in favor of big business numerous social programs — the main achievement of the Rousseff in office.
Plans large-scale privatization, development of private-public partnership and investment Temer told at a press conference in late July. However, a few days before he vetoed an article of a bill allowing foreigners to buy whole Brazilian airlines.
Northern partner
Soon Temer, if the process of impeachment of Rousseff will end her retirement, will be the first time to represent his country and her new course in the international arena. Already this weekend he will take part in the G20 summit in China. In mid-October will go to Goa to participate in the BRICS summit, confirmed to Reuters the assistant to the President. The source of the Agency noted that Temer plans to maintain close ties with other countries, informal enterprises: India, China, Russia and South Africa.
In the fall of 2015 Temer came to Moscow. He led a delegation of Ministers and businessmen, held talks with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich gave an interview to the Pro-Kremlin Sputnik Brasil edition. Brazilian politician stressed that the country intends to deepen existing relationships — as in the food trade and the creation of jobs and the purchase of Russian weapons (for example, the supply of antiaircraft complex Pantsir-S1) and the cooperation in space.
In this conversation, Temer confirmed the commitment of the government of Brazil announced Rousseff and Vladimir Putin’s goal of $10 billion bilateral trade. According to the FCS of Russia, for the 2014 Brazilian-Russian trade amounted to $6.3 billion in 2015 fell to $4.8 billion.
According to Martynov from the Moscow state Institute of Temer is a convenient figure: he arranges and Brazilian elite and the Western democracies, and their BRICS partners.
American spy
The Temer has developed a reputation of the Pro-American policy. The reason for this was the publication by Wikileaks — on the day of commencement of impeachment process against Rousseff, they released a number of documents from previously published array of correspondence of American diplomats. According to the letters, Temer at least twice — in January and June 2006, being the Deputy from são Paulo — met with the US Consul General and us officials to “discuss the current political situation”.
During these conversations, the Brazilian politician who had assessed the actions of the government and the opposition, talked about the causes and consequences of specific decisions of the authorities, explained to the interlocutors the essence of those or other processes, gave predictions about the political developments that followed from the publications.
American journalist Glenn Greenwald, famous for being published in The Guardian Edward Snowden’s revelations, then accused US of trying to overthrow the evil Rousseff by impeachment and approval of the more loyal of Temer. “From my point of view, these documents we are talking about espionage and even treason. Many now suspect that the impeachment started with the aim to alienate Brazil from BRICS and closer to US, ” says Greenwald. — What I can say for sure is that Washington preferred the government of Temer, rather than the workers ‘party of Rousseff”.
“Brazil has already developed its own foreign policy doctrine, its constant, and to work against it is to work against himself,” — said Martynov from the Moscow state Institute. The country is one of the leading economies in the world with their interests and with a claim to a sphere of influence (e.g. the South Atlantic) and the alleged Pro-us attitude of Temer unable to radically influence the course of Brazil, not to mention defense doctrine, he said. “Hardly a change in policy will go beyond declarations of friendship with the United States and the unity of the democratic countries. Brazilian diplomacy is very sophisticated, and you need to separate words from Affairs”, — he concluded.
