The consensus forecast for oil prices in 2016, the 34 analysts and economists polled by Reuters was $to 45.44 per barrel. In July it was $45,51 per barrel. The first downgrade of the forecast for six months after it increased five months in a row, the Agency said.
Of the 28 respondents who participated in the July and August surveys, eight downgraded its forecast for 2016, and 16 left him unchanged. The minimum forecast was made by research company JBC Energy. In her opinion, the average price of a barrel of Brent will be this year $of 41.99. ANZ Bank expects the average price of $55.
Since the beginning of the year, the average price of Brent was $42,59 per barrel, says Reuters. In January it reached 13-year low at $27,10 per barrel, while in June rose to an eight-month high at $wins with 52.86 per barrel, reminds Agency.
According to analysts, it is unlikely that an informal meeting of petroleum exporting countries, scheduled for September, will result in a meaningful agreement to limit the production. The head of the Department of analysis of commodity markets at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg Frank Shallenberger believes that the decision to freeze, if followed, would be a fiction, as Russia and Saudi Arabia are already in production at the limit of their capacity.
Analysts pointed out that the current situation with excess oil can aggravate the increasing number of working drilling rigs in the U.S. over the past three months, which will delay the process of finding a market equilibrium. Assessment the senior economist for energy markets of ABN AMRO, Hans van Cleef, the United States will continue to boost oil production but it will not reach the levels shown between 2011 and 2014, while still limiting the recovery of prices.
Analysts polled by Reuters say that now supplies to some extent limited due to attacks on oil infrastructure in Nigeria, civil war in Libya and the economic and political crisis in Venezuela. But in the case of reducing those risks, the pressure on prices will increase and they may collapse, says market analyst commodities at Capital Economics Thomas Pugh.
15:12 MSK barrel of oil with delivery in November were worth on the stock exchange ICE $of 48.15, which was 1.19 per cent below the closing price. During trading, the price range was $48,13–48,78 per barrel.
