The Russian embargo on the supply of basic foodstuffs from Western countries, contrary to the “firm opinion” in Russia, did not cause significant damage to those States. This conclusion is contained in the next issue of the monitoring of the economic situation in Russia, prepared by experts of Gaidar Institute, Ranepa under the President of Russia and the Russian Academy of foreign trade, Ministry of economic development. Cases where the reduction of exports to Russia led to a significant decline and the value of total exports sanctions, sanctions, and the scale of the economic damage is insignificant, should be of publication.
Most Western countries hit by the Russian food embargo in August 2014, is not only fully compensated for the loss of the Russian market at the expense of supply in other countries, but increased its food exports in the context of sanctioned goods, to the experts ‘ calculations, based on data of Eurostat and UN Comtrade database.
Specific losses of the main initiators of sanctions against Russia — the USA, UK, Canada, Germany, France — from Russian food embargo was not significant. Most of the countermeasures affected the nearest neighbors of Russia are long time partners of the country on food societies of: Norway, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland, ” the document reads.
The vast majority of the countries under consideration for 2014-2015 exports fell not only in Russia but in the rest of the world. The greatest losses recorded in the EU — $61.9 billion Netherlands — $14 billion, France and Germany — more than $10 billion Belgium — $8 billion). On the background of a General decline in export value of these countries for their losses on the Russian market was irrelevant. For example, exports to Slovakia fell by 28.9%, including the losses on the Russian market amounted to only 0.8%, France 15.6%, including the losses on the Russian market is 0.9%. In other words, even if exports of these countries in General, and fell, not because of the Russian embargo.
For most types of agricultural production in 2015, the EU increased its exports in terms of value in 2013 — €455,1 billion, in 2014 — €461,5 billion, and in 2015 — €RUB 482.5 billion), and in natural units, pay attention to the authors of the study. That is, the EU countries have found new markets for products, the import of which in Russia was banned.
Main products EU exports to Russia until 2014 was meat and meat products, milk and products, fruits and vegetables, according to the monitoring. In the valuation of losses in Russia could not compensate for other markets only for milk, as Russia imported more expensive products (e.g., cheeses), according to the authors.
This is the overall picture in the EU. But for individual countries it is significantly different from the average for the European Union, experts stress. For meat products, almost all the suppliers who lost the Russian market, found other markets and not only compensate for the loss, but even increased exports. The only exception was France. Earnings from exports of meat declined significantly in Germany, Denmark and Belgium.
On the vegetable market of the financial losses suffered by Lithuania, although it managed to offset the decline in exports to Russia (in real terms) due to increasing exports to other countries. Fruit the only country that suffered from Russian counter-sanctions, was Poland. The reduction of deliveries to Russia to 782 thousand tonnes in 2015, was only partially offset by increased exports to other countries (433 thousand tons).
In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the extension of the food embargo until the end of 2017. Shortly before that, the President said at the St. Petersburg economic forum that the sanctions “impact on Europe and the United States does not affect.