The Syrian failure: when Russia and the USA will again be able to negotiate

The end of collaboration

On Tuesday officials of Russia and the United States continued to accuse each other of disrupting the agreements on peaceful settlement in Syria, which foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry reached on 9 September.

“Russia and Damascus has abandoned diplomacy and seek a military solution to the conflict in Syria,” said U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry during a speech on Tuesday in Brussels. Moscow has a “growing impression” that “in the quest to achieve the coveted regime change in Damascus, Washington is ready “to conclude a deal with the devil” — to go into an Alliance with notorious terrorists, dreaming to reverse history and force engrafted his inhuman standards”, — said earlier the Russian foreign Ministry.

On Monday, the official U.S. state Department spokesman John Kirby announced that the United States cease participating in the work of two-way channels of communication with Russia, created for the cessation of hostilities in Syria. This decision, he explained that Russia had violated their obligations under international humanitarian law and UN security Council resolution on Syria (No. 2254). According to him, Russia and Syria chose continued military training course, incompatible with the reduction of violence has been attacks on civilian areas, the objectives of the hospital and on 19 September was attacked a humanitarian convoy.

Russia denies involvement in the attack on a humanitarian convoy. In a statement the Russian foreign Ministry said that humanitarian aid failed to reach Aleppo because the US had influence on the controlled opposition.

Agreement between the United States and Russia on the settlement in Syria has failed for the first time. The truce, which was agreed at the end of February, also did not last long and was thwarted in March. However, the agreement fell practically independent from USA and Russia reasons — it is not supported by various Syrian forces, drew the attention of the Director of the Moscow Carnegie center Dmitri Trenin. Now the disruption of the agreement was preceded by a strike by U.S. aircraft on Syrian troops and the attack on the humanitarian convoy, which Washington has accused Moscow, says Trenin. In February, despite the failure of the truce, the parties still had a credit of trust to each other, now the loan to zero, which demonstrates a war of words pouring into the information space: the leadership of Russia and the United States obviously tense nerves, says Trenin.

Incomplete rupture

The state Department’s statement about refusal from participation in the work of the bilateral channels of communication States that between the military of Russia and the USA will be saved in the communication channel, which is necessary to prevent possible incidents between them and to fight against the banned in Russia LIH. Contacts between the military “is continuing and will continue,” confirmed the press Secretary of the Russian President, Dmitry Peskov.

The Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov, commenting on the situation, noted that Moscow does not refuse work in an International group in support of Syria, which presides on a par with the United States. “We do not lose heart, we will ensure that Security Council decisions are implemented, believe that the international support group Syria can and should play a leading role,” the Minister said (quoted by “RIA Novosti”).

Agreement between the United States and Russia on the settlement in Syria has failed for the first time. The truce, which was agreed at the end of February, also did not last long
and was thwarted in March. In the photo: Minister of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov(right) and U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry

Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP

Kerry on Tuesday said that “the United States will continue to fight for a peaceful solution to the conflict.”

On Wednesday, according to German newspaper Tagesspiegel, senior representatives of the US, UK, Germany, France and Italy will meet in Berlin to discuss ways of normalizing the situation in Syria.

Russia and the United States also sooner or later return to the negotiations: everyone understands that a military resolution of the Syrian conflict, but it all depends on conditions, I’m sure the head of the St. Petersburg centre of studying of the modern Near East Gumer Isaev. Credibility, issued by the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Barack Obama, are exhausted: the Russian leader a lot of patience, but when the partner is unable to take the necessary, from the point of view of Putin, solutions, running out of patience with this administration Russia is not going to work, I’m sure Trenin.

Russia and the United States will not be able to reach an agreement on Syria before the end of the election campaign in the US, told Russia Today the Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on international Affairs Konstantin Kosachev. The United States presidential election will be held on 8 November.

The strengthening of the Russian group

Simultaneously with the appearance of information about the failure of the Russian-American agreement became aware of the dispatch to Syria of Russian s-300. First about sending batteries reported American Fox News channel. The Russian defense Ministry confirmed the fact of sending only on Tuesday evening. The system is designed to ensure the security of its naval base in Syrian Tartus and “located in the coastal area of the ships of the operative connection of the Russian Navy from the air,” said the official representative of Russian defense Ministry major General Igor Konashenkov (quoted by “RIA Novosti”). In Syria in late November, has already deployed the s-400 complex.

The s-300 VM (“Antey-2500”) is an anti-missile system more than defense, it allows you to intercept Intercontinental ballistic missiles across the spectrum, says military expert Vladimir Yevseyev. According to him, the emergence of such a division in the zone of conflict is a response to possible use of such missiles by the Americans in Syria. The new system can protect the Russian facilities, and, for example, the Palace of President Bashar al-Assad or the key control points. However, to protect objects in Damascus, the complex will need to be relocated, which will take time, the expert notes.

Over the past few days, government forces recaptured from rebels a few important areas in the Northern part of Aleppo. At the end of last week, the army occupied the refugee camp “Handarat”, and on the weekends — industrial Park “Societ”. On Tuesday, reported Syrian official news Agency SANA, the terrorists fired from artillery at the University campus of Aleppo, killing five civilians. In General, released on Tuesday by data the cart, from 23 September to 2 October in Aleppo killed 342 people, 1129 were injured. Besides, as reports the Turkish Anadolu Agency, citing military opposition representatives, on Monday, Russian aircraft attacked in Aleppo, the largest field hospital of insurgents, killing at least seven people. Russian defense Ministry this information has not commented.

According to Yevseyev, after the breakdown of the ceasefire military tasks in Syria will not change and Russia is unlikely to switch to a more active support of Assad. Available now Russian troops to ensure the victory of Assad is not enough, says Evseev. Plans to increase the grouping of the Russian officials not misleading. None of the parties no advantages on the ground, and that was one of the causes of the breakdown of the ceasefire, I am sure Isaev.