The share bought on credit of machinery reached a record since the crisis began

In the third quarter of 2016, almost half of new cars were bought on credit is. As follows from a joint study by the National Bureau of credit histories (NBCH) and the analytical Agency “AUTOSTAT”, the share of credit purchase of vehicles amounted to 46.4% is the highest since the beginning of 2014.

According to the study, in the second quarter, the share of credit purchase new cars were 43.6% in the first quarter is 37.3%. Thus, for the first 2015 quarterly index did not exceed 45% and in 2014 — 40%.

The growth of lending has occurred despite the fact that the new car market continues to decline, said the General Director nbki Alexander Vikulin. According to market participants surveyed, this was chiefly the desire of citizens to take advantage of the state program of subsidizing of auto loans extended to 2016.

Since the beginning of the year, according to the study, the loan was purchased 379,2 thousand cars, which is 7% higher than in 2015 (354,4 million). But the pre-crisis level, the number of loans purchased with their help of machines not yet released. The results of the first three quarters of this year by 37.4% less than results of the similar period of 2014 (605,9 thousand).

The drop in the total sales of new cars starting in 2016, was more impressive. According to “AUTOSTAT”, for nine months, foreigners have bought 887,8 thousand vehicles, or 8.5% less than in the same period of 2015, and 45.6% less compared to the same period in 2014. This happened because the drop in sales of cars sold without credit, in these two years amounted altogether to 50%. This led to an increase in the share of cars bought on credit in the statistics of “AUTOSTAT”.

The decrease in the sales of passenger cars influenced both the General economic situation and the rising cost of cars and auto parts, said Vice-President of the Association “Russian automobile dealers” Oleg Moseev. According to him, over the last two years the prices of new cars increased on average by 40%. Consequently, people are forced to spend more money to buy a car. Under these conditions, the purchase of a car on credit has become a specific output, said Moseev.

Note the increase in the volume of loans granted for the purchase of machinery, and the authors of the study. Since the beginning of the year, banks issued loans totaling 235.3 billion rubles a Year earlier, this amount was 187,7 billion rubles Thus, the authors of the study, while reducing the amount sold on credit car the average loan size increased.

“The volume of car sales for the first three quarters of the current year is lower than last year,” says Executive Director of the analytical Agency “AUTOSTAT”. According to him, “record” the growth of “credit” cars in the market structure in this case is due to the implementation of the state program of subsidizing of auto loans, and information about possible imminent completion.

According to senior Vice President, Director of Department of automobile VTB24 Alexey Tokarev, the number of loans for new cars, virtually unchanged over the year. “Determining the volume in a fraction of the [car loan] in the market makes soft loans. Program gesubsidieerde currently holds more than 70% of the volume of loans,” agrees Tokarev.

His conclusions are confirmed by the data of the Ministry that implements the state program of subsidizing car loans. According to authorities, from January to September 2016 in a loan at a reduced rate, sold more than 215 thousand vehicles (or 76% of all sold on credit cars).

The state program of subsidizing car loans has been launched in 2009, in 2016, was extended. It provides for the payment by the state to the Bank that issued the loan, 2/3 of the refinancing rate (now 10%). The interest rate for the borrower’s subsidized loan is calculated as the difference between the current rate of Bank loan and 2/3 of the refinancing rate of the Central Bank on the date of issuance of the loan. The average interest rate on car loan subject to offer discounts in this year is of 8.97%, the discount rate is 6.67 PPT

According to authorities, the total amount of state rebates in 2016 for all programs of stimulation of demand for cars is 16.3 billion.

Extend the program of subsidizing of auto loans in 2017, the Ministry is not promised. According to Minister Denis Manturov, the Agency will prepare various measures to support domestic car industry in 2017. While specific measures were not voiced.

According to market participants, if the authorities will not be able to offer a better alternative to state subsidies, the market may expect stagnation. “In the case of closure of the program of preferential lending to further increase in the share of loans to calculate will be difficult”, — says Udalov.

According to Tokarev, in the short term the demand for public programs will continue, and by the end of the year the demand for it will only increase. “Reaction to the termination will be negative and will be reflected as a decrease in the proportion of cars sold on credit”, — he said.