The representative of the Republican party — a 70-year-old billionaire Donald trump won the popular vote in the presidential election in the United States. Most States supported the Republican trump and his candidate for the post of Vice-President Mike Pence.
According to the media, which led their calculations, Trump managed to enlist the support of 57 million Americans. Bloomberg has given the Republican 276 votes in the electoral College, while it should be 270.
The former before the vote, the favorite Democrat Hillary Clinton lost the key States — Florida and Ohio. On the eve of voting in national popularity polls, Clinton was slightly ahead of trump. Her advantage reached 3.3 percentage points While in the swing States — which alternately support of Democrats and Republicans support the two candidates is almost equal.
Public opinion polls showed that most Americans identify with their preferences even before September 2016 — recent scandals with Clinton and trump does not have a significant effect on the ratings. Sociology also shows that the citizens of the United States when selecting the next head of state guided by antipathies: vote for trump to be perceived as a vote of no confidence in Clinton.
In the last before the elections, public speeches and commercials, both candidates focused on key points of his campaign. The former Senator and Secretary of state urged Americans in his ability to unite different people and was encouraged to create a country where there is a place for everyone. Construction magnate promised to fellow citizens to end the rule of the “corrupt elite”. In his video on the words of the corrupt establishment glimpses of Hillary and bill Clinton.
The long road to the White house
The support of ordinary voters does not formally guarantee the presidency to Trump. The head of state elected by an electoral College, whose representatives voted on 8 November. Traditionally, the electors in each state must support the vote of its inhabitants, and in the majority of States (except Nebraska and Maine) the winner gets all the votes of the representatives of the Board from that state. There is a theoretical possibility that the electors may not support the candidate they promised to vote, or even to refrain from voting. However, in reality this is very rare. For example, in 2000, did not vote the elector from the district of Columbia (the formal name of the capital of Washington) Barbara Lett-Simmons.
The 2000 election is notable for another reason. For the first time in the modern history of the United States in the presidential election results popular vote diverged from the preferences of the electors. While the majority of Americans voted for Democrat al Gore, the electors endorsed his Republican opponent George W. Bush.
The electoral College will vote on December 19, 2016. Congress full squad will gather for counting its votes, January 6 of next year. The unpredictable nature of the presidential race in 2016, has led experts and the media to lead the scenarios in which the President had to choose the House of representatives. Among the unusual, but possible options were called even a trump presidency with Vice President Tim Kane, who in “normal” situations would become the Vice-President Clinton.
The fateful Tuesday
Many Americans have already voted before November 8th. According to various estimates, in the early elections was attended by over 46 million people. Their votes will be counted along with enjoyed Tuesday’s ballots. The staffs of the Clinton and trump said that such a high voter turnout attests to the support of their candidates. In his analysis, experts rely on the demographics — for example, demand for early voting among Hispanic voters interpreted by them as a sign of the popularity of the representative of the Democratic party.
The vote itself on 8 November passed, mostly without violence and emergency situations. The exception was southern California, where at a polling station, unknown persons opened fire, causing one person died and three were injured.
Other incidents were related to the election procedure. On Tuesday it became known that trump filed in state court in Nevada, accusing the organizer of the local elections illegal, in his opinion, the extension of one of the polling stations. However, the court refused to accept the claim. North Carolina activists through the court demanded to extend the work of polling stations. In the event of a claim, the counting of votes from hesitant and critical of the state may be delayed.
Among the problems faced by the Americans, there were long queues at polling stations and disruptions in the voter registration system, such as in Colorado. In Texas he was arrested the attacker, who tried twice to vote for trump. Their actions, he explained, “the desire to test the electoral system for possible fraud.”
Clinton and Lincoln voted with their spouses in new York state. A Republican in Manhattan, and a Democrat in Chappaqua near the city. Over the course of the counting of votes candidates observed close to each other in the city of new York. Trump together with his family and selected journalists in the Trump Tower skyscraper and Clinton at the Convention center Javits Center.
During the vote, the representative of the 43rd US President — Republican George W. Bush and his wife Laura confirmed that they did not vote in the presidential election, limiting support Republican candidates at other levels.
After the closing of polling stations closest to the results of Clinton and trump was in Florida. The Republican was leading by a very slim margin, the polls showed that it was actively supported by immigrants from Cuba, while the rest of the Hispanics voted for the democratic candidate. Trump eventually managed to save the majority of votes over Clinton.
Electoral geography in 2016, gave Democrats some unpleasant surprises. Their opponents managed not only to win the election in Florida, but ahead of “donkeys” in Ohio and North Carolina. Before election day it was expected that the last state will vote for Clinton. The democratic candidate barely managed to save Virginia, which in recent years in presidential elections supports this party. Among the successes of the Clinton, you can also select the victory in Colorado and new Mexico.
The West coast traditionally vote for Democrats — this year there were no surprises. However, the scale of the country a large part painted in red — the color of the Republican party.
The revolt of the elephants
The dominance of red on the electoral map means not only a victory for trump in the presidential election. November 8 United States elections to the House of representatives. In addition, the Americans chose the 34 (out of 100) senators, and in 12 States held gubernatorial elections.
The Republicans retained control of the House of representatives. In the Senate they can expand up to 53 people. For the first time since 1988 under Republican control may be how the White house and Congress. Theoretically this will allow Trump to quickly implement their program. His predecessor, Barack Obama couldn’t engage with the Congress, the majority of which was controlled by the opposition.
Despite the stereotype of unpredictability trump policies in October said that it intends to do in the first — iconic — 100 days in power. Among the priority measures — tough measures against illegal migrants, the output of the TRANS-Pacific partnership and the subsequent re-examination of the conditions c NAFTA with Canada and Mexico. As steps to combat corruption in Washington, trump has proposed to limit the stay of congressmen and senators on their positions.
Fellow Chatham House, expert of the International discussion club “Valdai” Richard Sakwa stated that trump’s victory means the end of the old cold war. “The revolutionary idea of trump on the improvement of relations between the US and Russia will benefit for world order,” he said.
Meanwhile, stock markets around the world, including in the United States, reacted to the election trump fall of the major indexes and falling dollarom.
With the participation of Georgi Makarenko
