S&P calculated the vulnerability of developing countries to trade policy, trump

The analytical report on the impact of the presidency of Donald trump on emerging markets (have), Standard & Poor’s said that although it is too early to say what policy will adhere to the President trump, during the election campaign, he signaled that when it trade and migration regime, the United States will become less open. S&P has calculated the index of overall vulnerability of developing countries to the presidency trump, taking into account such factors as the exports of these countries in the United States and remittances of migrants working in America, home.

Vulnerability was assessed on a scale stoballnoy, from smallest to largest. The most vulnerable to possible economic measures trump were the countries of Central America and the Caribbean (the region accounted for six of the 10 most vulnerable countries). “Leader” in vulnerability became Honduras (index — 80), followed by followed by El Salvador (68), Nicaragua (61), Mexico (58) and Guatemala (53). From countries in other regions of the highest risks for Vietnam (37) and the Philippines (20).

The fact that Mexico, which was always the center of attention during the election campaign trump, vulnerability is “only” fourth place, due to its relatively low dependence on remittances by Mexican workers from the United States, the report noted.

Russia index of 3.6 is in the group of emerging markets, which, according to Agency estimates, will experience the least potential impact from protectionist measures trump.

During the election campaign, trump said the United States would not sign the agreement on the TRANS-Pacific partnership (Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP), as well as revise the North American free trade agreement (North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA) on the regulation of U.S. trade with Mexico and Canada. The new US President also admitted the country’s withdrawal from the world trade organization. In addition, it is expected that when the trump tougher migration policy (in particular, control over illegal migration from Mexico). Last week in an interview with CBS trump confirmed his intention to build on the border with Mexico a wall.

The protectionist attitude of Donald trump — a General concern of analysts, but in fact, protectionism was not the main cause of the slowdown in world trade in recent years, UBS analysts write in a review, 14 November (have). According to their estimates, on an artificial trade barriers as the reason for the slowdown in trade accounted for only 7%. The main reason (contribution 60%) — small investments around the world in recent years. However, protectionism can become much more serious obstacle to world trade, if the implemented policy scenario, trump, concerning NAFTA and TPP, noted analysts at UBS.

Another major investment Bank, Morgan Stanley, in their study of 11 November identifies three policy scenario of a new American President. In the first scenario, most of the promises trump will be just rhetoric — in this case it is not necessary to expect serious changes in trade policy. In the second scenario, the CCI will be rejected by Washington, and NAFTA — threatened (these and other measures will lead to growth of the dollar by 10% in the first half of 2017). Finally, in a third scenario, Morgan Stanley, Washington accused the Chinese government of manipulating the exchange rate and will pursue a tough tariff policy in relation to Mexico. The dollar against the currencies of countries-major U.S. trading partners will rise sharply in 2017 and continue to rise in 2018.