Analysts assessed the risk for the sale of 19.5% of “Rosneft” from the case speaker

Selling state-owned 19.5% of Rosneft shares, scheduled for December, may be in jeopardy due to the arrest of the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev on charges of bribery, says the analyst of “Aton” Alexander Kornilov.

“The speaker plays a key role in the privatization of “Rosneft” (19,5%), so his arrest (at the time of publication, the Minister was detained but not arrested. —) can jeopardize the closing of the transaction until the end of the year”, — stated in the review (have). He notes that he sees no immediate consequences for actions “Rosneft” and “Bashneft”, “Rosneft executives not accused of involvement in the case, and the deal with the “Bashneft” is not questioned”.

The detention of Alexei speaker could slow down the deal on privatization of 19.5% of “Rosneft”, because the Ministry is a key Ministry for this process, says the analyst of “Opening the Capital” Artem Konchin. “The market is not in the best condition, but the strap on this transaction has been set quite high. It is unclear how it will work in the Ministry of economic development in the near future, and how it should be involved in the process,” said Konchin (quoted by TASS).

In turn, partner of the RusEnergy consulting Agency Mikhail Krutikhin in an interview admitted as the ability to change the schema of privatization package of Rosneft and its abolition. “I think that it can, and schema change, and to cancel, because now it has become clear that no money from the state budget will not come. A “pseudopeptide” nothing to do with the replenishment of the budget has,” said Krutikhin.

Economist at BCS financial group Vladimir Tikhomirov sure that the transaction will not be delayed. “According to my estimates, at this stage there is no reason to expect that privatization of “Rosneft” planned for this year, will be postponed. Don’t forget that in the revised budget for the current year has already laid the proceeds from the sale of 19.5% of “Rosneft”. Already painted, where will the income. Thus, if the transaction did not take place, then freezes the budget”, — said Tikhomirov (quoted by “Interfax”).

The absence of the threat to the deal said the ING Bank economist for Russia and CIS Dmitry Field. “I do not expect that this transaction will have any problems. At least at this stage, threats to delay the privatization of “Rosneft” I do not see”, — I noted Field.

The representative of the Secretariat first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, who oversees privatization in the government, refused to comment on whether the detention of the speaker from the sale of shares of “Rosneft”. “RIA Novosti”, citing a source in banking circles close to the organizers of a number of privatization deals reported that signals from the authorities about a possible change of plan “big privatization” yet. “While silence, although a large seen from a distance,” — said the Agency interlocutor.

Serious consequences for the transaction of the earlier privatization of a controlling stake of “Bashneft” redeemed “Rosneft” the government, experts do not predict. In particular, the ex-Chairman of the Central Bank Sergey Aleksashenko in conversation with has expressed confidence that “shocks” in this matter will not. “Judging by the fact that the UK is rather quickly issued a statement that claims to “Rosneft” no, what the deal is completed legally, then you can count on some shocks is unlikely. The shareholders of these companies can be absolutely quiet,” said Aleksashenko.

The Sale Of “Rosneft”

The government expects to gain from the sale of 19.5% of “Rosneft” at least 710,85 RUB bn Sale of package of “Rosneft” should be completed no later than December 5. Until December 31, the money should be transferred to the budget “in the form of dividends” from Rosneftegaz, through which the government owns shares in Rosneft, said earlier Alexei Ulyukayev.

Calm reaction

The Russian stock market in General, news about the detention of the head of the MAYOR responded weakly. The value of the rouble, the MICEX index in early trading on Tuesday, November 15, grew, and then declined slightly, losing at least approximately 0.25%, compared with yesterday’s closing. The “dollar” as the RTS index kept today in the “green” zone, at the maximum, its value rose by more than 1%.

According to the chief of analytical Department of Bank “Zenith” Vladimir Evstifeeva, Russian market has not responded by the decrease of the detention of the speaker due to the small investors ‘ confidence in monetary authorities.

“With the current financial-economic bloc of the government, the markets do not expect any miracles in the economy. While the ruble and the stock market is more responsive to oil prices, the beginning of the tax period, the results of the elections in the United States — in General, they have distractions,” explained Evstifeev.

According to him, the visible reaction may be followed later, when there will be information about changes in economic development, and stock quotes “Rosneft” and “Bashneft” will behave quietly enough, if there are no official news about the doubts in the privatization transaction.

“We are not inclined to overestimate the importance of this morning’s allegations about the detention of Ulyukayev, Minister of economic development, taking into account, in our opinion, a much greater weight of Finance and the Central Bank in the current Russian economic realities”, — stated in the report of ROSBANK.

“Worst case scenario”

ING analysts in the review (have) believe that the consequences for the Russian market and economy as a whole can be fundamentally different depending on the further development of the events surrounding the criminal case against the head of the MAYOR. According to experts, only if there is another round of anti-corruption at the highest levels, the impact of this case on the market will be limited.

At the same time, ING point to the possibility of exacerbation of the rivalry between the clans of the “siloviki” and “liberals” in the nation. Thus, according to experts, speech can go as about the conflict over different approaches to the privatization of state oil assets, and a full-scale offensive “security forces.” The last option in the report ING named the worst of the scenarios.

“The worst scenario is that the incident is only the beginning of the “siloviki” to “liberals”. The goal may be strengthening the position of the more conservative factions in the government. It is also possible that this action is directed against the government as a whole (and/or Prime Minister), especially given the ongoing economic crisis and the approximations of the presidential election. If that’s the case, we can see the increase the risk for strategy of sound fiscal and economic policy with clearly negative consequences for the markets”, — stated in the report ING.

According to SKR, criminal case against Alexei Ulyukayev instituted in connection with the receipt of their November 14, 2016 $2 million for the Ministry of economic development issued a positive evaluation, which allowed the oil company “Rosneft” to buy the state package of shares of “Bashneft”. According to investigators, the speaker demanded money as a bribe from the representative of “Rosneft”, with “threats of using their authority to create further obstacles for the activities of the company.” Ulyukayev charged with receiving a bribe with extortion and on an especially large scale (part 6 of article 290 of the criminal code).

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