Under the shade of trump: that leaders will discuss at the summit in Peru

21 leaders of the Asia-Pacific economic community (APEC) will gather in the capital of Peru Lima in summit on Saturday. US President Barack Obama’s summit will be the last major international event. According to the official agenda of the summit, leaders must discuss the possibility of changing attitudes towards globalization and trade policy because of the increasing regional and global concerns that in the current state they are not able to ensure social and economic progress for all participants. However, the world politicians and experts do not doubt that the main topic of discussion will be the outcome of the US presidential election and the future of the region after the election of Donald trump.

The Shadow Of The Trump

“Everyone will be talking about it (the election trump), without a doubt,” — said on Thursday the Prime Minister of Australia Malcolm Turnbull. “We expect the elections will be the main topic everywhere we went. The white house wants to emphasize that previous administrations, presidents from Republicans and Democrats, steadfastly adhered to alliances with allies in Europe, Japan and South Korea,” — said the Deputy assistant to the President for national security Ben Rhodes at a briefing in the White house. However, said the employee of the Obama administration, the following study will determine the priorities.

Trump’s statements during the campaign made nervous by many in the Asia Pacific region. In April, he said that if Japan and South Korea want to continue to be under the protection of the us military, they have to pay, but Japan actually you should think about obtaining nuclear weapons. The proposal of the elected President cannot be implemented due to limitations in the Japanese Constitution. Intending as quickly as possible to understand the priorities trump, Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe, upset all the Protocol formalities, on Thursday will hold a meeting with trump in new York, told Reuters. Abe said that this meeting is necessary to establish trust, which will help to maintain existing alliances.

During the campaign, trump has made many statements, from which it refused, until the outlines of his policy in the Asia-Pacific region is not very clear, in particular, during the campaign he said several times that the allies have to pay for protection, but his advisers in an article in Foreign Policy this thesis has softened, says Alexander Gabuev, head of the programme “Russia in Asia-Pacific,” Carnegie Moscow center. November 7, the day before the election, trump’s advisers, Alexander gray and Peter Navarro published in the journal of Asian Foreign Policy program of the elected President. It says that line Obama was wrong because it was reduced fleet costs, which led to a military rise of China, therefore, trump intends to return to the concept of “peace through superiority in power” by President Ronald Reagan. This concept provides for increasing military spending and call for US allies, especially Japan and South Korea to increase its contribution to the creation of a military group.

Despite the contradictions in the political part, the economic part of the promises trump has consistently criticised the free trade treaties.

Uncertainty after the US elections and the scale of the changes to U.S. trade policy related to President Donald trump, will be the main topics of the summit, said the expert of the Center for analysis of strategies and technologies Vasily Kashin. “Countries need to figure out how far trump is willing to go in fulfilling his campaign promises,” says Kashin.

The Agenda Of Putin

Vladimir Putin missed the previous APEC summit. At the upcoming summit, the Russian President will meet with President of Vietnam Tran Dai Quang a, President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte, President of Peru Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, Chairman of China XI Jinping and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. It is possible his separate talks with Barack Obama.

The future of Commerce

Despite the fact that APEC is discussing the possibility of creating a free trade zone, to the practical steps in this direction have not reached, and the economic leaders of the region — the United States and China began to promote its own economic integration projects. United States — TRANS-Pacific partnership (TPP), and China — the Regional comprehensive economic partnership (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership).

The TRANS-Pacific partnership — a free trade agreement between 12 countries (besides the United States, it also involves Japan, Australia, Canada, Chile, New Zealand, Mexico, Brunei, Singapore, Vietnam, Peru and Malaysia). The signing ceremony was held in February this year in Auckland new Zealand. The partnership must combine States, which account for 40% of world GDP and a similar share of world trade. In absolute terms, the combined GDP of the members of the Association amounted to $28 trillion. According to analysts, the partnership should take about 18 thousand in import tariffs.

Talks about the launch of the partnership in different formats was conducted in 2006. The secrecy in which consultations — exact provisions of the final document was unknown until its signing was prompted protests from human rights activists and oppositionists in the countries — participants of Association. Opponents of free trade in the region fear that the partnership will have a negative impact on business in their countries.

Already at the time of signing the agreement the opposition in the United States was so strong that the Obama administration recognized the future problems with its ratification. One of the key provisions of the electoral program of the elected President of the trump was the refusal from participation in the partnership. The unpopularity of TPP made even his rival Democrat Hillary Clinton to advocate for the revision of the agreement. However, according to gabuyeva, if elected, Clinton could have achieved the ratification of the document in Congress.

Most likely, Pacific partnership came to an end, believes Kashin. Perspectives promoted by the PRC project, now look more favorable, but rapid progress in its development Cashin not wait. Readiness to join the Chinese initiative on Thursday, has said the Australian Prime Minister Turnbull. China has the opportunity to seize the initiative, indicates Gabuev. The prospects for the Chinese project is much stronger now than a month ago, the willingness “to turn in his direction,” said Abe, drew attention in a comment to the former Prime Minister of Australia, the expert opinion of Kevin Rudd.

The rejection of the TPP will not affect the interests of Russia, as Moscow mainly sells in the region with weapons and the energy that the CCI did not take into consideration, the overall concern of Moscow in connection with the agreement was related to the fact that in the case of the implementation of the CCI of Russia and the Eurasian economic Union could be left out, indicates Gabueva.

Generally speaking about the main threats to APEC, then it is likely that the US will come out of all of the multilateral trade negotiations with the region and begin to build on the free trade agreement, increasing the tariffs for the regional economy and restoring protectionist barriers. It will harm not only the U.S. economy, but the economy of the region and the world, worries former Australian Prime Minister Rudd.