According to a Bloomberg among 27 economists survey, most analysts believe that the Russian currency will strengthen by 5-10%. On the second place on popularity the scenario in which the growth rate of the ruble to the dollar will be 1 to 5%, the inclined 41% of respondents.
It is very likely that the US President Donald trump would give Russia a significant easing of the sanctions regime in 2017 have declined. So, in December of the survey data showed that it is 43%, and according to a recent survey conducted by the Agency 20-25 January, the probability of such development of events decreased to 35%.
In case of a substantial strengthening of the ruble, the Russian authorities, most likely, will conduct currency intervention, says Bloomberg Vadim Bit-Avragim, senior portfolio Manager of UK Capital.
Societe Generale analysts in their study, which leads Bloomberg, admit that an easing of sanctions could lead to the fact that the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar will be set at a level below 50 rubles. per dollar. The CBA in this case, in their opinion, will begin foreign exchange intervention to control risks to financial stability.
Last week, on Friday, January 27, adviser to trump, Kellyann Conway said the TV channel Fox News that the issue of lifting the sanctions against Russia “discussed”. Later that day trump at a joint press conference with Prime Minister of great Britain Teresa may said that the abolition of sanctions against Russia is “too early to say.” Not touched on this topic during the first phone conversation between trump and the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, which took place on January 28.
On 19 January the first Vice-Premier of Russia Igor Shuvalov in an interview with Bloomberg said that with the current level of oil prices and the decision not to spend additional oil and gas revenues have the option of buying currency in the market. On 25 January it became known that since February, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will start buying currency on the domestic market in the amount which will be determined monthly and depend on the amount of the windfall from the sale of oil and gas.