The governors on the way out: how heads of regions threatens with resignation

Perm reshuffle

The President of Russia Vladimir Putin has accepted the resignation of the Minister from the post of Governor of the Perm region, the acting head of the region appointed Maxim Reshetnikov, who worked until recently head of the Department of economic policy and development of Moscow. The corresponding decree on Monday, February 6, was published on the Kremlin website.

Basargin held a post of the Governor of the Perm region from may 2012, prior to that, from 2008 he worked as the Minister of regional development of Russia. The Perm head was dismissed shortly before the end of his term in may 2017 in the region will be direct elections. Basargin was considered a figure close to the mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin as his successor on a post of the Governor Maxim Reshetnikov. The latter is a native of Perm and to work in the capital held a number of positions in the region. “The Perm region has a great potential, and much remains to be done to make this potential work for the benefit of residents”, — the statement says Reshetnikov, received .

On the eve of the single voting day in September in the coming months, experts expect a series of changes in the gubernatorial corps. Traditionally, at risk are the governors-the”losers” of the rankings close to the Kremlin expert structures. He Basargin, although previously expressed ambitions to go for another term, took these ratings very low due to the difficult socio-economic situation in the region and inter-elite conflicts. As wrote “Kommersant-Prikamye”, the Governor had tense relations with influential groups close to the ex-heads of region Oleg Chirkunov and Yuri Trutnev.

The head of Perm officially explained his resignation by the need for a new acting Governor to prepare for a single day of voting in September.

The governors on the flight

In the January rankings of the Fund “Petersburg politics,” said about the prerequisites to the replacement of the ten governors, whose powers end in 2017. In addition to Basargina Sergey Zhvachkin (Tomsk oblast), Valeriy Radaev (Saratov oblast), Vyacheslav Nagovitsyn (Buryatia), Vladimir Volkov (Mordovia), Alexander Khudilainen (Karelia), Yevgeny Kuyvashev (Sverdlovsk oblast), Oleg Kovalev (Ryazan region), Evgenie Savchenko (Belgorod region), Sergey Mitin (Novgorod region).

Before that, in December came the rating of survival rate of governors from the “Petersburg policy” and “Minchenko Consulting”. It deuces got the Governor of the Pskov region Andrei Turchak, Valery Shantsev of the Nizhny Novgorod region, Orel Governor Communist Vadim Potomsky, the head of the Samara region Nikolay Merkushkin and the Governor of Buryatia Vyacheslav Nagovitsyn. Two plus coped Viktor Basargin, head of Perm Krai, as well as his colleague from the Saratov Valery Radaev and “rolled” over the year “losers” Sverdlovsk Governor Yevgeny Kuyvashev.

Political scientist Alexander Kynev inclined to think that the resignation would be justified in the first place, in Karelia, Novgorod and Ryazan region, and the replacement of the Governor of Sverdlovsk region, this is a debatable issue. “We need to see who else will appoint in return. We sometimes have enough intelligence to get rid of inefficient, but to designate the same or worse”, — says the expert.

The head of the “Petersburg policy” Michael Vinogradov agree that the problem of the governors is the head of Karelia Alexander Hudilainen and Ryazan Governor Kovalev. He also speaks about the problems the head of Buryatia Nagovitsyn, Mitina from the Nizhny Novgorod oblast of Kuibyshev and Sverdlovsk region.

At the same time, says the expert, there is no clarity “in Saratov, where the Governor is not a powerful political heavyweight” and there is no information in the Tomsk region, where the Governor’s term of office expires.

When to expect new resignations

“We can expect that the basic package of decisions [on the resignations of the governors] will be adopted no later than February — March — predicts “the Petersburg policy” in the January rankings. — In many regions it is unlikely a compromise solution in Adyghe scenario. Today the common expectation of replacing at least half of this group of governors.”

Under Adygei scenario, the experts mean a permutation on 12 January, when 69-year-old head of Adygea Aslan Tkhakushinov (he was the head of the region 10 years) has asked President Vladimir Putin to resign. Instead, the President appointed the acting head of the Republic speaker of the state Council of the Republic 43-year-old Murat Kumpilov. The new Governor was the nephew of wife Tkhakushinov, and his countryman from the village of Ulyap. Thus, the power remains the same clan that experts have rated as comfortable for the former head of the region script.

Expert-regionalist Rostislav Turovsky notices that for different groups, including people in the presidential administration, is an opportune moment to promote their interests in the region and replace the unwanted governors. This is due to the fact that we are approaching the single voting day in September and resignations need to make in the next two or three months that the new acting Governor to prepare for elections. “In February-March should be decisions already agreed upon what number of governors is changing and in how many regions will be held gubernatorial elections in September,” agrees Turov with the experts of the “Petersburg policy.

Tasks block Kiriyenko

For control of regions meets the new unit the Department of internal policy (Ohr) of the President under the authority of the Deputy head of the Kremlin administration Sergey Kiriyenko. Last October the chief of the Department was Andrey Yarin, close to the presidential envoy in the Central Federal district Alexander Beglov.Kiriyenko later strengthened CIP new Deputy Alexander by Koricheva, with whom he had been acquainted at work in the Privolzhsky Plenipotentiary representation and the “Rosatom”. DIP in Kharichev became the curator of the regional elections.

Experts believe that handwriting the new team will be clear after definition of the appointees. Political analyst Yevgeny Minchenko sees no differences between the requirements for governors the political unit Kiriyenko and his predecessor in the Kremlin, Vyacheslav Volodin. “We have evaluation criteria the governors of the places, declares the President, not the officials of his administration. Let’s wait for appointments, and see what kind of characters are planned,” suggests the expert.

“I think the handwriting will be known after the first appointees, agrees Vinogradov. But overall, the team Kirienko more focused on economic indicators”.

Turov agrees that until the demands of the Kremlin and the governors will be linked with the socio-economic situation in the regions, but the situation may change after the election cycle this year.

Connection with the presidential race

In December 2017 will be officially launched the presidential election campaign, but experts do not see a direct connection between it and the rotation of the gubernatorial corps.

Turovsky believes that a new Governor does not necessarily organize a presidential campaign better than retirees. “Practice shows that the replacement of governors of the Federal campaign may negatively affect the result”, — the expert believes.

While Minchenko notes that the more ratings are the Governor, the easier it is to elect a head of state with good results.

“The dismissal of some “allergen” is perceived as a positive signal,” says Kanev. According to him, a bright regional campaign can become a “distraction”, which will replace the lack of intrigue of the presidential campaign. Conducting competitive campaigns can also be perceived as a sign of “refreshment” political picture, which is after the 2016 election looks “pretty sad,” concludes the analyst.

With the participation of Egor Gubernatorova, Elena Smirnova, Maria Istomina, Dmitry Nasonov