In France, on 7 may will be held the second round of presidential elections. The polls promise victory to the centrist Emmanuel Macron is in competition with a candidate from the nationalist marine Le Pen. However, the result could impact a low turnout and a series of scandals
No surprises
Sunday, may 7, in France will host the second and final phase of the presidential election. For the highest office in the country fighting two politics: the leader of movement “Forward!” centrist Emmanuel macron, and the candidate of the far-right party “national front” marine Le Pen.
Unlike Russia and the United States, the transition period between the election and the inauguration in France are quite short, and is one week. By the morning of 8 may, the interior Ministry must announce the completion of the counting of votes. Official results will be announced on 11 may, and the inauguration of a new President will be held on may 14.
By law, before the election comes two days of silence: the last legal public opinion polls were published in the night of Friday, may 5th. A definite favorite remains a centrist Makron: according Elabe and OpinionWay, he will receive 62% of the vote, according to a poll Ifop — a little less, 61%.
Accordingly, Le Pen can get only 38-39% of the vote. Similar to the result of the vote expects to see Ivan Bloch, ex-Deputy of the French Parliament and expert of the Valdai club. According to him, the right-wing electorate is now divided between the “National front” and more moderate “Republicans”, whose candidate Francois Fillon showed in the first round of the third result. The Fillon urged supporters to vote for the Macron. According Elabe, ready received 45% of them (32% intend to support Le Pen).
As shown by the OpinionWay poll, 78% of French people also believe that the next President will be macron. Irish bookmaker Paddy Power takes bets on the victory of Makron is based 1/12 (92% probability). British bookmaker Willian Hill at the rate of 1/10 (91% probability).
A series of scandals
At the same time, the latest survey by OpinionWay showed a high dissatisfaction of the French passing of the electoral campaign. Throughout the spring before the first round of the proportion of respondents who called the race as “bad” or “terrible”, was steady above 80%. By the beginning of may, the discontent declined slightly, to “only” 74%.
Ivan Blo claims that more than a third of French voters are undecided. This is due to the fact that the representatives of the traditional political forces in France — the left and right center, the ultra-left — not been to the second round. “A refrain, the turnout will be lower,” said RBC analyst. Two weeks ago, the turnout was 77.8%. In the 2012 election in the first round reached to 79.5%, and in the second round even exceeded 80%. “Everyone thinks that macron have already won. And it can play havoc with the candidate, when voters will go to the polls, and the electorate of Le Pen will come”, warns scientific Director of the Valdai club Fyodor Lukyanov.
