Cleared of seasonality, Russia’s GDP increased in may by 0.4%

Moscow. July 6. INTERFAX.RU – IN may 2017, according to estimates of the Ministry of economic development, GDP growth amounted to 3.1% in annual terms, while the index of the GDP, cleared of seasonality, increased to 0.4%, according to the monthly monitoring Department of the state of the economy.

“According to the Ministry of economic development, the growth of GDP accelerated to 3.1% from 1.7% in April. GDP growth in January-may 2017 is estimated at 1.3%, while the main contribution came from mining (0.4 percentage points), manufacturing (0.3 percentage points) and transport sector (0.3 percentage points), and trade and the energy sector (0.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points respectively),” reads the report.

“In may this year, the temperature in Russia on average was 2.2 degrees lower than in may the previous year, which could not affect the level of economic activity and its components. Support economic growth in may helped the growth of electricity production and the extraction of natural gas and coal. On the other hand, cold weather, estimated to have been the root cause of a certain increase in unemployment may result in lower-than-usual seasonal rise in employment in agriculture, and hotel and restaurant business” – described the effect of cold weather on economic activity in the Ministry.

The Ministry noted that leading indicators of economic activity in June, “evidence of the continuation of the recovery phase of the economic cycle, but the annual growth rate of industrial production in June may be somewhat slow”.

The average daily volume of loading of goods in railway transport increased in June by 2.5% yoy after 3.6 percent a month earlier. “The slowdown occurred primarily in the transportation of oil and oil products, in addition, has accelerated the decline in construction freight loading, which together may indicate a more restrained results in the production of coke and oil products and construction materials”, – noted in the Ministry.

Simultaneously, the growth of electricity consumption, by data “the System operator of the Unified energy system”, slowed down from 4.8% yoy in may to 2.1% yoy in June. “This slowdown is likely to be associated with less active use of air conditioning this summer (temperature in June was 1.6 degrees lower than a year earlier), and with lower activity in domestic tourism, restaurant and hotel business, also due to cold weather. However, these trends are estimated to have a local character, about what, in particular, by maintaining a high level of PMI services (55.5 in June from a reading of 56.3 recorded in the previous month)”, – stated in the monitoring.

As reported, the Ministry of economic development predicts the growth of Russia’s GDP in 2017 2%. Of the Central Bank in mid-June, has improved its expectation for economic growth for 2017 to 1.3% to 1.8% 1-1,5%. Analysts are closer to the Central Bank in their expectations. The consensus forecast of economists polled by “Interfax” at the end of June – early July, GDP growth in 2017, 1.4%.